The second half of the season begins tonight, let's take a look at things we want to see in order to have confidence in this team having a shot at contention in 2012.
1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. Obviously Gordon's first half has been the brightest spot for the 2011 Royals to date. For Royals fans and bloggers like myself who have defended Gordon and blamed his late blooming on injuries and bad luck, this season has come as a huge relief. But so far we have played just over half of the games on the 2011 slate. Gordon has come a long way, but a collapse in the second half could cause a similar collapse in fan's dreams for 2012.
2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Despite Butler walks being virtually unparralled by any other Royal in the last two decades, posting an on base percentage near .400. Butler has been a big disappointment for Royals fans in 2011. Whether or not this is fair is another discussion, but I think we can all agree that if Butler could start slugging the ball like he did in 2009, or even just like he did in 2010, we would be much more confident in his ability to be a middle of the order hitter.
3. An efficient Danny Duffy could go a long way. I'm not asking for Duffy to become a dominant pitcher in the second half (though if he did it would definitely go a long way), but if he can just be more efficient in controlling the strike zone and his pitch counts. This would allow him to go deeper in the games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and allow him to pound the strike zone even more with his great stuff.
4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. It may be unfair to ask so much of Hosmer, but in my opinion he warrants it. It takes times for hitters to develope and normally they don't fully hit their stride until year two or three. But I truly believe that Hosmer is going to be ahead of the curve. If Hosmer can continue to improve his numbers in the second half, maybe just post around a .300/.350/.450 line in the second half then Royals fans are going to be really excited about the first base position when they look toward 2012.
5. A good luck Felipe Paulino or really even just a not unlucky Felipe Paulino. Throughout his career Paulino has consistently posted head scratching era numbers considering the strength of his peripherals. He has knockout stuff and a dynamite fastball. His body type suggests he can handle a big time workload, so if Paulino's luck pendulum can swing in the opposite direction or even hang straight down the Royals will have found one/fifth of their rotation through 2014 for nothing at all.
6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Mike Moustakas hasn't looked overwhelmed in his time in the Majors and he has put together solid at bats on a consistent basis. However, he hasn't been the player that those of us that have seen in the minors have come to love. He doesn't appear to be swinging as hard and his power has been virtually non existent. A strong second half from Moustakas could be just what Royals fans need to really buy into Mission 2012.
7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. Luke Hochevar is beginning to transition into Kyle Davies territory and if he can't put together a strong second half then I wouldn't have any problem with the Royals trading him in the offseason even though it would mean selling low.
8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. I'm not going to ask for Escobar to become a .300 hitter (though I think it is possible). But if he can get his average up into the high .260s by the end of the year, Royals fans will recognize the value that he brings with his glove and an average bat for the position.
9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. The bullpen has a huge bright spot for the 2011 Royals and the best news is that every single pitcher is under team control through at least 2014. If this unit can continue to find success and dare I say even improve, it could be a tremendous asset for the Royals moving forward.
10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship and even finding time in Kansas City this summer could be huge for Royals fans expectations for 2012. The glaring weakness of this team is the rotation. The team needs a frontline starter. Montgomery has that potential and if he can continue to dominate like he did in his last two starters Royals fans should really start to have a lot of confidence for 2012.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Poll Results: Next Royal to be Called Up
Royal Revival recently posed the question "Who will be the next Royal to make their American League debut this season?" Here were our results:
Lorenzo Cain- 47%
Johnny Giavotella- 47%
Mike Montgomery- 4%
David Lough and Clint Robinson didn't receive any votes.
Lorenzo Cain- 47%
Johnny Giavotella- 47%
Mike Montgomery- 4%
David Lough and Clint Robinson didn't receive any votes.
Friday, July 1, 2011
An Illustration of the Royals Fan Mind
The Royals fell tonight 9-0 against the Colorado Rockies and have now lost 4 games in a row. But tonight is a perfect illustration for why Royals fans are truly excited for the future of this franchise.
It began with Mike Montgomery on his twenty-second birthday pitching an absolute gem. He went 6.2 shutout innings and recorded 7 strikeouts to just 3 walks. He gave up only two hits and both were singles.
After being skipped in his last start, Mike Montgomery quite simply reminded all of us to take a chill pill and relax. He cruised to his best start of the year and we were reminded of his ACE potential.
But the night had only begun. Just a couple hours after Montgomery exited the game the Royals got the International signing period kicked off with a bang with the signing of this year's top International prospect to a $3.05 million signing bonus.
The bonus falls just short of Miguel Angel Sano's international free agent hitter bonus of $3.15 and it figures to be the largest bonus handed out in this year's class.
It is said that Hernandez's bat isn't the most advanced out of Latin America, but he has a mature body that fits the mold of a Major League right now. He is 6-4, 200 pounds and has tremendous bat speed with quick wrists.
Scouts project above average power with above average contact ability. He will find a spot as a corner outfielder and won't ever have the range to play center, but his arm will be more than strong enough to handle a corner.
Like Bubba Starling, Elier has mind blowing upside but will not come without a big amount of risk. Along with Starling (assuming he is signed) the Royals have now really built up that outfield depth throughout the organization. Not to mention they have just added another potential superstar to the organization.
Rumors are the Royals are only getting started and that they are also hot and heavy on shortstop prospect Aldaberto Mondesi, son of former big leaguer Raul Mondesi. Aldaberto is one of the younger players and won't be eligible to sign until he turns 16 on July 27. The shortstop prospect should stick at the position and the rumor is the Royals could offer seven figures.
Despite the current struggles of the big league team. The snowball of future excitement only continues to grow as we roll down the mountain toward contention.
It began with Mike Montgomery on his twenty-second birthday pitching an absolute gem. He went 6.2 shutout innings and recorded 7 strikeouts to just 3 walks. He gave up only two hits and both were singles.
After being skipped in his last start, Mike Montgomery quite simply reminded all of us to take a chill pill and relax. He cruised to his best start of the year and we were reminded of his ACE potential.
But the night had only begun. Just a couple hours after Montgomery exited the game the Royals got the International signing period kicked off with a bang with the signing of this year's top International prospect to a $3.05 million signing bonus.
The bonus falls just short of Miguel Angel Sano's international free agent hitter bonus of $3.15 and it figures to be the largest bonus handed out in this year's class.
It is said that Hernandez's bat isn't the most advanced out of Latin America, but he has a mature body that fits the mold of a Major League right now. He is 6-4, 200 pounds and has tremendous bat speed with quick wrists.
Scouts project above average power with above average contact ability. He will find a spot as a corner outfielder and won't ever have the range to play center, but his arm will be more than strong enough to handle a corner.
Like Bubba Starling, Elier has mind blowing upside but will not come without a big amount of risk. Along with Starling (assuming he is signed) the Royals have now really built up that outfield depth throughout the organization. Not to mention they have just added another potential superstar to the organization.
Rumors are the Royals are only getting started and that they are also hot and heavy on shortstop prospect Aldaberto Mondesi, son of former big leaguer Raul Mondesi. Aldaberto is one of the younger players and won't be eligible to sign until he turns 16 on July 27. The shortstop prospect should stick at the position and the rumor is the Royals could offer seven figures.
Despite the current struggles of the big league team. The snowball of future excitement only continues to grow as we roll down the mountain toward contention.
What to do with Joakim; Part 4
I am going to post my thoughts here about the Nationals as a trade partner for Joakim Soria. They do have one potential piece that could be very attractive to the Royals, however I don't think they have the prospect flair to get a deal done.
Here is why I am going to briefly touch on the Nationals though. First I imagine the two teams have good relations with one another given that they nearly were able to complete a deal that would have sent Zack Greinke to Washington for Jordan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, and Drew Storen. It is a shame that Dayton Moore didn't follow his mentor's advice and never include no trade clauses in contracts, because that haul would have been sweet. But I digress...
Back to why I believe the Nationals should be discussed. It seems that the Nationals are in win now mode. This sounds strange, but I truly do believe that they want to do everything it takes to win soon and build up a fan base in the Washington D.C. area. If they could win no, while the Orioles are struggling it would only be that much more beneficial to their growing fan base.
The Nationals have also blown more saves than any other team in baseball in 2011. They are currently 23 for 41 on converting save opportunities into wins. Despite this horrible figure they are one of the surprises of baseball and are currently 41-41.
I am sure the Nationals, like every other team in baseball would love to add Soria to their bullpen and his team friendly contract. Since they wouldn't be adding a one year guy they could knock out a primary offseason priority and when Strasburg returns next year and some of their young players are another year along in their development they could be ready to really contend.
There is one piece in the Nationals farm system not named Bryce Harper that would be extremely appealing to the Royals and his name is Derek Norris. Norris entered the season rated as the number 72 prospect in the game and the second best prospect in the Nationals organization.
Norris is said to have plus power potential, which was on display in low-A when he hit 23 home runs for Hagerstown. What really makes Norris stand out though his his plate discipline. For his career he has walked 308 times and struck out just 361 times. In fact in this season in his first stop in double-A, as a twenty-two year old he has walked 41 times to 57 strikeouts.
His discipline has also been his falling. He often watches too many pitches and because of it gets himself into bad counts. He is only hitting .207 but the offensive potential is definitely there. Despite this dreadful batting average he is still getting on base at a .371 clip.
He is still a bit raw defensively, but he did throw out 51% of would be base stealers a season ago. However, that number is down to 37% in 2011. Norris is said to have all star potential and is one of the top catching prospects in the minors.
The Royals would also surely be interested in acquiring Drew Storen, one of the players they thought they had acquired last winter in the nixed deal. Storen ironically was the man the Nationals drafted with the compensation pick they received for their failure to sign Aaron Crow.
It hasn't taken long for Storen to establish himself not just as an up and comer but as one of the better relief pitchers in the game. This season he has a 2.90 era and a 32:12 strikeout to walk ratio.
There are also two primary pitching prospects that would be discussed in the deal. The first is the Nationals 4th rated prospect: A.J. Cole. Cole is a 6-4, nineteen year old righty. Thus far in his first full season he has posted a 2.92 era with 46 Ks to 9 walks in 37 innings.
Cole sits in the mid 90s with above average command and a smooth delivery. His curve could be a plus pitch and his changeup is developing but as of now hit or miss. He doesn't fit in the first wave but could be a great arm to that second wave.
The other young arm that would be extremely appealing to the Royals, because of how it could play into the second wave that they are trying to build is Sammy Solis. Solis is twenty-two years old and is also pitching in Low-A. He has a 40 to 12 strikeout to walk ratio and has pitched better than his 4.02 era suggests.
In my opinion because of how far away these three prospects are (Norris, Cole, and Solis) the Nationals would have to include all four of the aforementioned players in the deal to make it worthwhile for the Royals. The only safe and Major League ready player is Drew Storen so the Nationals would really have to go above and beyond in the prospect side of things to make it worth it for the Royals.
Like the Cardinals I don't know that the Nationals have enough depth in the system to give up as much talent as it would take to make the Royals happy in a deal like this. I also could easily see the Nationals balking at the idea of trading one young closer plus prospects for another closer. But there it is, what do you think? Which of these makes the most since? Do any of these deals justify trading Soria in your mind? What do you think?
Here is why I am going to briefly touch on the Nationals though. First I imagine the two teams have good relations with one another given that they nearly were able to complete a deal that would have sent Zack Greinke to Washington for Jordan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, and Drew Storen. It is a shame that Dayton Moore didn't follow his mentor's advice and never include no trade clauses in contracts, because that haul would have been sweet. But I digress...
Back to why I believe the Nationals should be discussed. It seems that the Nationals are in win now mode. This sounds strange, but I truly do believe that they want to do everything it takes to win soon and build up a fan base in the Washington D.C. area. If they could win no, while the Orioles are struggling it would only be that much more beneficial to their growing fan base.
The Nationals have also blown more saves than any other team in baseball in 2011. They are currently 23 for 41 on converting save opportunities into wins. Despite this horrible figure they are one of the surprises of baseball and are currently 41-41.
I am sure the Nationals, like every other team in baseball would love to add Soria to their bullpen and his team friendly contract. Since they wouldn't be adding a one year guy they could knock out a primary offseason priority and when Strasburg returns next year and some of their young players are another year along in their development they could be ready to really contend.
There is one piece in the Nationals farm system not named Bryce Harper that would be extremely appealing to the Royals and his name is Derek Norris. Norris entered the season rated as the number 72 prospect in the game and the second best prospect in the Nationals organization.
Norris is said to have plus power potential, which was on display in low-A when he hit 23 home runs for Hagerstown. What really makes Norris stand out though his his plate discipline. For his career he has walked 308 times and struck out just 361 times. In fact in this season in his first stop in double-A, as a twenty-two year old he has walked 41 times to 57 strikeouts.
His discipline has also been his falling. He often watches too many pitches and because of it gets himself into bad counts. He is only hitting .207 but the offensive potential is definitely there. Despite this dreadful batting average he is still getting on base at a .371 clip.
He is still a bit raw defensively, but he did throw out 51% of would be base stealers a season ago. However, that number is down to 37% in 2011. Norris is said to have all star potential and is one of the top catching prospects in the minors.
The Royals would also surely be interested in acquiring Drew Storen, one of the players they thought they had acquired last winter in the nixed deal. Storen ironically was the man the Nationals drafted with the compensation pick they received for their failure to sign Aaron Crow.
It hasn't taken long for Storen to establish himself not just as an up and comer but as one of the better relief pitchers in the game. This season he has a 2.90 era and a 32:12 strikeout to walk ratio.
There are also two primary pitching prospects that would be discussed in the deal. The first is the Nationals 4th rated prospect: A.J. Cole. Cole is a 6-4, nineteen year old righty. Thus far in his first full season he has posted a 2.92 era with 46 Ks to 9 walks in 37 innings.
Cole sits in the mid 90s with above average command and a smooth delivery. His curve could be a plus pitch and his changeup is developing but as of now hit or miss. He doesn't fit in the first wave but could be a great arm to that second wave.
The other young arm that would be extremely appealing to the Royals, because of how it could play into the second wave that they are trying to build is Sammy Solis. Solis is twenty-two years old and is also pitching in Low-A. He has a 40 to 12 strikeout to walk ratio and has pitched better than his 4.02 era suggests.
In my opinion because of how far away these three prospects are (Norris, Cole, and Solis) the Nationals would have to include all four of the aforementioned players in the deal to make it worthwhile for the Royals. The only safe and Major League ready player is Drew Storen so the Nationals would really have to go above and beyond in the prospect side of things to make it worth it for the Royals.
Like the Cardinals I don't know that the Nationals have enough depth in the system to give up as much talent as it would take to make the Royals happy in a deal like this. I also could easily see the Nationals balking at the idea of trading one young closer plus prospects for another closer. But there it is, what do you think? Which of these makes the most since? Do any of these deals justify trading Soria in your mind? What do you think?
Halfway There. Living on a Prayer.
Just like that we are halfway through the Major League baseball season. Of course most people split the season into two halfs around the all star break, but for the purpose of this post we are going to use the 81 game mark. The reason? All we have to do is multiply by two and we can see some projected totals for Royal players.
Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.
Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.
Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.
Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.
Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.
When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).
Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.
Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.
Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.
Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.
Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.
On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.
Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.
Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.
The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.
As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.
Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.
Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.
Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.
Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.
Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.
When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).
Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.
Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.
Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.
Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.
Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.
On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.
Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.
Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.
The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.
As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.
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