Bad News for Bueno, Peguero as Royals Claim Schuster

Lefty Patrick Schuster, the top pick in the Rule 5 draft this offseason by the Houston Astros and was then was traded to the San Diego Padres, was claimed by the Royals according to MLB Trade Rumors. With the feeling that Francisley Bueno had sealed up the final spot in the bullpen currently the top story on Royals.com, this comes as a bit of a surprise.

A 13th round pick by Arizona in the 2009 draft, the 23-year old Schuster has not pitched above High Class-A so far. He did impress in 2013 for Visalia, however. In 44.1 innings over 55 relief appearances last season, the Florida native posted a 1.83 ERA and held both lefties and righties under a .200 BAA while striking out 25.6% of the hitters he faced. While his first half (1.08 ERA in 29 appearances) was slightly better than the second half, he did not allow an earned run in his final 14 appearances.

This spring, Schuster allowed 2 earned runs on 11 hits in eight innings spread over eight appearances, good for a .333 BAA. Of course, Schuster must prove himself worthy of a roster spot for the duration of the season, or the Royals will have to place him back on waivers and offer him back to the Diamondbacks.

Update: In related news, the club has traded catcher Adam Moore to the Padres and Designated Carlos Peguero for Assignment.

Prospect Countdown: #5 Miguel Almonte

5. Miguel Almonte Right Handed Pitcher

milb.com

Age: 20
Position: RHP
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 180
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as non-drafted FA in 2010
From: Santiago, Dominican Republic

2013 Rank: 17

Landon Adams (4): In his first trip to full season ball, Miguel Almonte did nothing but impress. After an April which saw him post a 5.50 ERA over 18 innings, Almonte scorched the South Atlantic League competition for the final five months of the season. When all was said and done among pitchers with at least 125 innings, Almonte ranked third in the league in FIP (2.76), fourth  in SIERA (3.18), second  in K% (24.7), sixth  in BB% (6.7), and first in strikeouts per 9 innings (9.09).

When it comes to Almonte the Royals have a seriously advanced pitcher considering the fact that he has logged just 130 innings in full season baseball. Almonte has shown excellent command. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and his changeup was called the best in the system by Baseball America. At this point he feels like a safe bet to reach his mid-rotation potential (by pitching prospect standards) and could feature even higher if he can develop a quality third offering. 

Entering spring training most would have guessed that Almonte would open 2014, in the pitcher's paradise of Wilmington. Instead, there's been buzz that the Royals will begin the season with Almonte in Double-A Northwest Arkansas. While some would consider this to be an aggressive assignment for the soon to be 21 year old, I think he can handle the jump. With Almonte as advanced as he is, I don't see a huge purpose to sending him to Wilmington for two months just to dominate Carolina League competition. Instead the Royals should continue to push him and force him to develop a third offering.

Paden Bennett (7): Last season I cited Almonte's excellent command, good fastball, and changeup as reasons to be excited about this Royals Dominican pitching prospect. After another excellent season, there is genuine reason to believe that the Royals have a gem in Almonte. Still throwing in the middle 90s and with a dynamite changeup, Almonte will need to develop a quality curveball or slider before he can make good on his front end potential. 

Joe Cox (3):  Miguel Almonte a personal favorite of mine when it comes to Royals prospects.  Last season I spoke of him as a guy who could make positive strides, but he was able to outperform expectations.  Almonte threw 130 innings in Lexington, ending the year with a 3.10 ERA and 2.76 FIP.  For the second year in a row, Almonte was able to limit walks and home runs while striking out around a batter per inning.  

He has also done pitched in leagues that are appropriate for his age, as 2014 will be Almonte’s age 21 season.  Professional prospect evaluators like Almonte’s polish and his chances to have a plus fastball, change, and off-speed offering.  It seems likely that Almonte will spend majority of his season in AA, and like Bonifacio could be moved aggressively.  We could very well see Almonte’s major league debut sometime in 2015, hopefully joining a rotation that already consists of Ventura and Zimmer. 

Dan Ware (5): I was thoroughly pleased with the season Almonte put on display last year, and if you failed to watch the MLB Futures Game during the All-Star break, you missed a solid inning from the 20 year old Dominican native.  Miguel faced Detroit Tigers catching prospect James McCann, inducing a groundball to 3rd, struck out Minnesota Twins' top prospect Byron Buxton, and forced a shallow flyball to RF by St. Louis Cardinals's #3 prospect Kolten Wong.  

Almonte has flourished through the system, and won't turn 21 until April.  He has a fastball that stays in the 91-93 mph range, but can hit 96 mph.  His changeup, ranked the best in the Royals' system, sits around 82-86 mph, which is a solid difference in velocity compared to the heater.  What impresses scouts is the repition of his mechanics and his ability to keep his pitches low in the zone, which shows in his solid groundball rate of 45% and BB rate of 6.3%.

Miguel has proven himself to be a top pitching prospect in the organization, after succeeding in already 3 Leagues at the young age of 20.  I don't expect any setbacks in the coming season, as he'll most likely join the Blue Rocks' rotation in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League. 

Nicholas Ian Allen (--): After a tremendous season in Rookie ball in 2012, Almonte got off to a rough start to the 2013 season. He allowed at least two earned runs in each of his April starts, none going longer than 5.1 innings. He ended the first month with a 0-3 record and 5.50 ERA and surrendered a .315 batting average.

The soon-to-be 21-year old settled down from there and posted a sub-3.29 ERA each month the rest of the way. He did his best work in late June and July, keeping hitters In the second half of the season he held opponents to a .225 average over 69.1 innings, and posted a 2.47 ERA in 13 starts, including a six-inning complete game June 30.

Initially, I was ready to project Almonte as a future closer. It stands to reason with all the high-impact arms in the system they can’t all end up in the rotation. But instead, Almonte actually seems worthy of and suited for the rotation. Furthermore, over the course of 2013, he needed some time to settle in.  

He allowed leadoff hitters a .285/.348/.415 slash, his worst of any situational pitching, but got stronger in the second turn through the lineup, holding hitters under the Mendoza line and allowed only eight earned runs in 42.1 innings combined in the fourth and fifth innings of games. And, strangely enough, Almonte had quite the split in day games as opposed to night games. Maybe he is a late sleeper? In seven early starts, the right-hander went 1-3 with a 4.86 ERA and allowed a .268 average. On the other hand, he went 5-6 with a 2.50 ERA and .226 BAA in 15 starts under the lights.

In all, Almonte put together another strong season that showed his talent and durability. It seems reasonable that he will open with Wilmington and could possibly see time in Double-A this year. If all goes well, Almonte could be ready for the big leagues in 2015.

Total Points: 105

Data Shows Spring Stats Matter

Another day, another fantastic Mike Moustakas spring performance. With each day that goes by the Royals former top pick continues to mash in the Arizona sun. Heading into this afternoon's game Moustakas was hitting .450/.521/.875 and of course he then went 1-1 with two walks. So what does all of this Spring success mean for Moustakas in 2014? Fortunately, the wonderfully fantastic FiveThirtyEight and Neil Paine brought us this post on when Spring Training results matter. Here's what Paine concluded:

"We then find that spring productivity is statistically significant when predicting actual performance in the upcoming season, even after controlling for a player’s Marcel projection. However, while significant, the effect is extremely small: To raise his expected regular-season wOBA by just a single point, a typical player would need to hit for a wOBA roughly 17 points higher than expected during the spring.

In other words, spring numbers can and should affect our predictions for a player’s regular-season production, but only slightly, and only after a particularly strong or weak performance."

Based off this study, there is statistical backing to believe that Moustakas's strong spring should improve our expectations for our third baseman for 2014. In fact, Mike Moustakas is one of the ten players that Paine even mentions as a guy to keep an eye on for the upcoming season. Prior to Spring, Marcel's projections called for Moustakas to post a wOBA of .321, but after a wOBA of .616 in Spring they have revised their projection to .331 for the season.

This of course would be a tremendous improvement from Moustakas's 2013 performance in which he posted a wOBA of .287. In fact, Moustakas's previous career high in wOBA is the .305 mark that he posted in 2012. In case you are curious a .331 mark would've ranked 72nd in baseball last season and 8th among third basemen.

I'm not of the opinion that Moustakas has to rake for the Royals to find the playoffs in 2014. The Royals have done enough this offseason to get themselves to the periphery of playoff discussion and there are much fewer "ifs" that need to play out this year than there have been in the past for the Royals to play in October. Of course, if Moustakas can hit as Marcel and Paine are projecting, with his defense he becomes a 3.5-4 win player.

Let's hope that Moustakas can carry these results into the season. It would be a huge boost to the Royals offense.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Prospect Countdown: #6 Jorge Bonifacio

6. Jorge Bonifacio Outfielder

milb.com

Age: 20
Position: OF
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 192
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as non-drafted FA in 2009
From: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

2013 Rank: 5

2012 Rank: 15

2011 Rank: 45

Landon Adams (6): Jorge Bonifacio continues to chug through the Royals minor league system, posting solid, but not eye popping results. For his career he has hit .289/.355/.443 over 1362 plate appearances. Bonifacio possesses a swing that projects for solid average, he runs okay, and his arm is good enough to play in right. The one tool that could turn Bonifacio from a solid regular to an all-star is his power potential. 

Royals fans have heard a lot about the power potential of Jorge Bonifacio. In fact, just a year ago on the Up and In podcast a scout's opinion was relayed that Bonifacio had the most power potential in the entire Midwest League (at the time Miguel Sano was also playing on the circuit). We've yet to see the power translate into high slugging percentages or balls into the seats, but the reports are still there. One thing that I'm extremely looking forward to seeing in 2014, is Bonifacio showing off his power in game at Arvest Ballpark.

Another thing that I will be watching in regards to Jorge Bonifacio are his platoon splits. Last season alone, Bonifacio hit .266/.348/.384 against right handed pitchers, but mashed against lefties to the tune of .424/.472/.606. For his career, Bonifacio has hit the opposite side better than same side pitching, but never to this extreme. Hopefully, Bonifacio can continue to mash left handers and pick up his game just a little against right handed pitching. 

Long term, Bonifacio appears to be the Royals solution in right field. He also seems to be a pretty safe bet as a prospect. With Nori Aoki in Kansas City on a one year deal, right field will be up for grabs to start 2015. My guess is Bonifacio splits 2014 between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. Next year Jarrod Dyson and Justin Maxwell will platoon in right for the first month and a half of the season, before Bonifacio comes up and claims what is his. The Royals will then control Bonifacio through 2021. 

Paden Bennett (5): Last season I had this to say regarding Bonifacio "(Bonifacio) is the guy that can ease the pain of trading Wil Myers.  He has that ability.  I don't believe his potential is as high as Wil Myers, but I do think Bonifacio has the ability to become a very good middle of the order hitter in the majors." A year later I still believe this is the case. In 2014, I hope to see some of Bonifacio's power that we've heard about translate into actual home runs in Northwest Arkansas.

Joe Cox (6):  Jorge Bonifacio comes in at number six this season after having a productive 2013 season.  Bonifacio, 21, reached AA last year and had no difficulty at being a productive hitter at each of the three levels he played at last season.  Between the three levels he played, he managed a triple slash line of .298/.372/.429 over 374 PA.  

While known for his power potential, Bonifacio only hit 4 home runs last season.  He did show an ability to control the plate, with a walk rate of 10% while keeping his strikeouts under 20%.  Bonifacio has the skill set both offensively and defensively to play right field at the major league level.  Bonifacio should start his 2014 in AA but could be pushed up aggressively if he continues to show the ability to hit at that level; though he will be young compared to the rest of the league.  

Bonifacio has a very exciting set of skills to work with, and I have hopes that we will continue to see growth in the power department.  He reminds me a little of a higher profile prospect in Jorge Soler, but Bonifacio is actually a year younger and Soler has yet to reach AA.  Both profile as power hitting right handed bats without too many holes in their game.  Bonifacio is on a trajectory to reach the majors sometime in 2015 and could become a big mover on national prospect rankings next year. 

Dan Ware (3):  Bonifacio, the younger brother of former Royal Emilio Bonifacio, turns 21 in June and still remains the OF prospect that can bring power to a future lineup in Kansas City.  In the meantime, Jorge will likely be the starting RF for NW Arkansas to begin the 2014 season.  In his first go-around with the Naturals last year, Jorge fared well in 105 plate appearances, hitting .301/.371/.441.

Although Jorge didn't produce appealing power numbers last year, he predominately played in a pitcher-friendly Carolina League and had a short stint in Double-A, so I'll give him that.  He's 20 years young with time to mature, the power will come.  His ability to hit in the gaps has impressed scouts the most, with his quick and strong hands.  While he's already at 200 pounds at age 20, he'll likely fill out a little more as he gains a couple years, but still pans out to be a sufficient RF with a strong arm.


Nicholas Ian Allen (--): With Jorge Bonifacio, the Royals have another exciting prospect that has shown talent and production at a very young age. While the system is not ranked as high by some of the experts as it was a few years ago, it is as deep as ever.

The word that comes to mind most when I look at Bonifacio is "solid." There is really no one thing that jumps out in his skill set overall, he just a good solid player all-around. He hits the ball hard, keeps it in play, and gets on base - all terrific signs for an advanced hitter.

While I do not have much to add about the soon to be 21-year old as a player, the thing that intrigues me most about Bonifacio is wondering how the Royals will handle him. It will not be long before he is pushing for playing time in the Kansas City outfield, but with the club set to contend for a playoff spot this season and the youngster probably a year away from the big leagues, he could be very tempting to trade come July. 

I feel the long-term decision could come down to Bonifacio versus Billy Butler, and which provides the best bat two or three years down the road. If the brass truly sees Bonifacio as a cornerstone of the franchise, they will obviously keep him. On the other hand, if he could bring a piece makes the club feel better about making the playoffs in 2014 or possibly making a run at the World Series, it is an option that must be considered.

Total Points: 104

Prospect Countdown: #7 Bubba Starling

7. Bubba Starling Outfielder

milb.com

Age: 21
Position: OF
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 180
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2011 Amateur Draft
From: Gardner, KS

2013 Rank: 1

2012 Rank: 2

Landon Adams (9): It appears that I have the distinction of ranking Starling lower than any other Royal Revival contributor. Let's take a look at why. First and foremost is his age. Now many would cite Starling's age as a reason for optimism, but I see a 21 year old that is coming off a .727 OPS season in in Low-A. Another issue is the strikeouts. Last season Starling's 25.7 K% was the 14th worst in the SAL, and that was coming off a season in which his 30.2% mark ranked 4th in the Appalachian League.

The good news for Starling is that he does walk a little bit. For his career he is walking in 11.1% of his plate appearances. Hopefully, as he logs more plate appearances he can continue to improve on the walk rate and cut down on the strikeout rate. If he can manage to keep his walk rate above the 12% mark and get his strikeout rate down below 25%, he'll be at a level where he can be a very good Major League player. Unfortunately, these things don't get easier as you move up the ladder.

My colleagues are likely to point out Starling's terrific close to 2013 as reason for optimism moving forward. Obviously, I'd rather Starling's results be good than bad, but looking at his strikeout, walk, and contact numbers, it doesn't appear that Starling made any real progress in August of 2013. His LD% was just 13.8%, while his strikeout and walk percentages were his worst since April. 

Hopefully, part of Starling's problem was similar to the one that faced Eric Hosmer when he was in Low-A: vision. 35 games into 2013, Starling did undergo LASIK eye surgery to correct some vision problems that he was having. According to Starling he was having a hard time seeing the spin of the baseball during night games (in 2013 night games, Starling hit just .226/.311/.370, while in day games he hit .291/.387/.485). If the eye issue truly was causing Starling the night time problems that he insisted it was, then perhaps Starling's true current talent level is closer to the .872 OPS that he posted during the day. Royals fans have to be hoping that is the case.

Major League Baseball's signing bonus rules allowed the Royals to spread Starling's signing bonus over three seasons since he was a multiple sport star. 2014 will be Starling's third year in the system, and so fans likely can't help but wonder what happens if Starling continues to struggle at the plate? Hopefully, Starling can overcome the long odds that face him with a trip to Wilmington and he can earn a midseason promotion to Northwest Arkansas. One would have to think that if he can reach the upper levels by the end of 2014, the proximity of Major League Baseball will be enough to keep him in the Royals system.

Paden Bennett (3): Last season I selected Starling as my Royals 2013 breakout prospect. Obviously, for this to have unfolded Bubba would have needed to elevate himself into the conversation as one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Unfortunately, last season he didn't do that. Instead, he dropped from Royal Revival's top prospect to #7. Still I realize that I personally rank him higher than any of the other contributors to this site, except for maybe Nick. 

Last season I also compared Bubba to former Braves farmhand Jeff Francoeur. As time has passed even this comparison looks to rosy. Starling will enter his age 21 this season and it will likely be at high-A Wilmington. When Frenchy was 21, he was busting into the big leagues, playing 70 games for the Baby Braves and hitting .300/.346/.549 with 14 home runs and 45 RBI.

The reason that I am still optimistic for Starling is the way in which he finished the season. We always knew that Bubba would be a late bloomer, but it looks like he was starting to put it together at the close of 2013. In the final month of the season he hit .333/.404/.595. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come and he will go to Wilmington and mash in 2014. 

Joe Cox (7):  It is fair to say that up to this point Starling has not lived up to the lofty expectations that Royals fans had for him after being drafted 5^th overall in the 2011 amateur draft.  In his first full professional season last year Starling displayed some of his raw power and athleticism, bopping 13 home runs and stealing 22 bases in 498 PA in Lexington.  Starling does not have any issues in the outfield, as he could probably handle center field at any level already.  

Starling will not be seeing the higher levels any time soon unless he cuts down on his strike outs.  Last season Starling struck out 128 times, which is a strike out in about 25% of his plate appearances.  He does show the ability to take a walk, having walked 553 times last year.  There have been many articles written about Starling's swing being too long, making it hard for him to make consistent contact, and he has not been able to correct this yet.  

Even with a ‘down’ season, he still managed an OPS of .727, telling me that his raw skills can hide some of his technical flaws.  Time is still on Starlings side, as this will be just his age 21 season.  While fan’s may have to permanently temper their expectations as Starling becoming a five tool perennial All-Star, I still see Starling having a floor of a guy like Drew Stubbs, assuming he doesn’t bottom out completely. 

Dan Ware (7):  Coming into his 3rd year with the Royals organization, Bubba is still one of the most intriguing prospects on our countdown.  The 21 year old from Gardner, Kansas played in his first full professional season and by looking at the numbers above, you would think he didn't have a good season, but a more in-depth view of his numbers is needed to see just how much of a positive season Starling had in 2013.

Before the South Atlantic League All-Star break, he was hitting a lousy .221 with only 7 HR.  Post All-Star break, he kicked it into overdrive, hitting .305 with 6 more HR, decreasing his K rates and increasing his BB rates.  One other statistic to look at is his BABIP.  In 2012, he had a BABIP of .372, while hitting nearly 100 points less.  Last season, his rate dropped almost 70 points to a much normal value.  We must consider that his pro debut was in short-season rookie ball and is not a large sample size, as well as the fact that he's just a freak of an athlete.

2014 will assuredly be challenging for Starling as he'll most likely join Wilmington.  The Carolina League is one of the more pitcher-friendly leagues in all of the Minors.  Unless he goes absolutely crazy at the plate, I don't expect high numbers from Bubba, but considering his plus power, it wouldn't surprise me to see him put up 10+ HR for a third straight year.  As for the glove, the defense is already there with Starling.  He has plus range in all directions in CF, possesses a strong arm, and with his above-average speed, can steal a few bases, as he showcased in Lexington with 22 SB.  

Nicholas Ian Allen (--): Okay everybody - let's not panic. There is a ton of pressure that comes with being selected fifth overall and signing for $7.5 million, but there is still plenty of time for Bubba Starling to reach his lofty potential. He played 125 games for Lexington last season at the age of twenty, which remember would be considered young a level lower.

Starling did get off to a terrible start to the season and spent much of the summer clawing his way to respectability. He seemingly just needs some time to warm up in general, as he struggled in the third spot in the lineup (.213/.298/.361) and in the first inning of ballgames (.171/.301/.263).  However, bit by bit, Starling improved over the course of the season and exploded in August. In the season's final full month, the outfielder hit .322/.398/.575 with three doubles, three triples and three homers in 87 ABs.

Despite his early struggles, two of Starlings' best assets never left him: his power and his speed. The Kansas native split his 13 homers equally with seven in the first half of the season, and he stole 22 bases in 25 attempts, giving him an 89.2% success rate over his first two professional seasons. Starling is also a quality outfielder.

I would have rated Bubba Starling as the third best prospect in the system because he is one of the most athletic prospects in baseball and will continue to improve as he matures. The sky is still the limit, and Starling will continue to grow as one of the youngest players in the Carolina League in 2014. I am confident enough to say that in the end he will be stronger because of his early struggles as a professional, and in a few short years he will be hitting in the middle of the order in Kansas City.


Total Points: 98