Comparing Royals Drafts to Industry Standards

Today Matt Eddy of Baseball America published this article on the success rate of draft picks selected in any draft from 1987 to 2008. I wanted to take a second to compare the 2002 through 2008 results to the Royals last two General Managers. In order to maintain some fairness to Dayton Moore, I have broken up his tenure into two pieces. Here are the results:

GRADUATION AND TENURE RATES THROUGH THE YEARS
% to Reach Majors
Round	MLB     02-08	Baird    01-05	Unclaimed 2006	Moore 07-09	Moore 10-13
1	81.10%	57.14%	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
1st supp	55.00%	50.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
2	50.70%	60.00%	0.00%	50.00%	0.00%
3-5	35.20%	6.67%	66.67%	33.33%	0.00%
6-10	19.90%	24.00%	0.00%	6.67%	0.00%
11-20	13.20%	10.00%	20.00%	3.33%	0.00%
21+	5.10%	4.00%	3.33%	1.11%	0.00%
Total	17.40%	10.24%	12.00%	6.67%	0.00%

So the first thing that jumps out at me is that Dayton Moore hasn't drafted a Major League player since the 2009 draft. I find this to be interesting, but it probably isn't quite the indictment that it might initially seem. 

Another thing that stands out to me is the number of Major Leaguers that Allard Baird was able to select in the 6-10 range. Six of his 25 draft choices in this range have reached the Majors, although just Mike Aviles has stuck. Still, when one considers the financial limitations that were placed on those drafts, it appears that Baird's scouting department performed admirably. 

Here's a look at the combined wins above replacement for the Royals draft classes from 2001-2013:

Rank	Year	GM	bWAR
1	2002	Baird	30.1
2	2005	Baird	20.9
3	2004	Baird	17.7
4	2007	Moore	10.9
5	2003	Baird	9.6
6	2006	Unclaimed	7.4
7	2009	Moore	5.7
8	2008	Moore	3
9	2013	Moore	0
10	2012	Moore	0
11	2011	Moore	0
12	2010	Moore	0
13	2001	Baird	-0.6

Wait a second... I thought Dayton Moore was the guy with the awesome track record in scouting and player development? Well to be fair, Baird's top drafts are the result of some nice picking at the top with Zack Greinke, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon. If those three were removed, the remainder of those three draft classes would look extremely pedestrian.

Ultimately, the argument to be made in Moore's defense would be that his picks haven't had the time to mature like Baird's have. After all, in Alex Gordon's first three seasons he contributed just 5.1 bWAR. It wasn't until his fifth season did he really break out. It wasn't until Billy's fourth season that he broke the 3 bWAR plateau and Greinke was only able to net 7 WAR in his first four professional seasons. 

Okay, I hear your argument. Let's take a look at Baird's first three drafts 7 years after he was hired and compare them to Dayton's  drafts 7 years after. Here's what we've got:

Rank	Year	GM	bWAR
1	2007	Moore	10.9
2	2009	Moore	5.7
3	2002	Baird	4
4	2008	Moore	3
5	2005	Baird	2
6	2001	Baird	1.9
7	2013	Moore	0
8	2012	Moore	0
9	2011	Moore	0
10	2010	Moore	0
11	2004	Baird	-1.2
12	2003	Baird	-2.1

This changes things quite a bit. Keep in mind, that each General Manager's draft classes are only accounting for the bWAR accumulated up through 2007 for Allard Baird and 2013 for Dayton Moore. In six years, I'd be surprised if Dayton Moore's draft classes weren't better than what we are currently seeing from Baird, but given the financial flexibility that Moore and company have received we shouldn't expect anything less.

What is more telling, are Dayton Moore's numbers when compared with the industry as a whole. While it is unfair to compare his recent drafts to the success rates of Major League Baseball's 2002-08 drafts, even when we focus on Moore's 2007 through 2009 drafts we find that he is lacking. Sure he was 100% in drafting Major Leaguers with his first three first round picks, but how good were those picks? 

Mike Moustakas has netted the Royals 4 bWAR, which ranks 11th out of players drafted in the 1st and supplemental rounds in 2007, but his career has stalled. Eric Hosmer ranks 8th in his 1st round class with 3.3 bWAR, while Aaron Crow is now a mediocre middle reliever, whose 2.9 bWAR ranks 7th out of 2009 first rounders. 

Barring something unprecedented, the Royals are on track to become the first team to ever top Baseball America's farm system rankings to not make the playoffs within three seasons. The Major League club is on pace to win 76 games. The scouting department hasn't drafted a Major Leaguer since 2009. The farm system was ranked 18th by Baseball America entering the season and has on many levels disappointed in 2013. I wonder if the next General Manager will ask for seven years worth of patience?