Thursday, January 19, 2012

Alex Gordon Extension

In the last Royal Revival poll, the Royals Nation was asked when they expected an extension to be announced for Alex Gordon. Here are the results, after 68 votes:

  • Before 1/22/12: 8 votes, 11%
  • Between 1/22/12 and 4/6/12: 39 votes, 57 %
  • Between 4/6/12 and 10/3/12: 4 votes, 5%
  • Between 10/4/12 and Gordon's Free Agency: 6 votes, 8 %
  • Gordon won't sign an extension with Kansas City: 11 votes, 16%
I chose 1/22/12 as a the cut off for "very soon" because a year ago Billy Butler signed a four year contract extension on that date. If I had to vote right now, I would actually bet that Gordon signs a contract extension after that date, and if I had to be more specific I would bet on next week. If I had to be more specific, I'll go with Wednesday. 

As for the amount, well Gordon offers more positional value than Royal counterpart Billy Butler. However, Butler had produced well for four seasons, while Gordon has produced for two. Ultimately, I think Gordon will receive more than the $32 million that was guaranteed to #CountryBreakfast a year ago. 

So here's my official guess for Gordon. On Wednesday he'll sign a 4-year contract extension with a 5th year team option and I think the total value for the contract will be $34 million. Structured something like $5 million with a $1.5 million dollar signing bonus in 2012, $8 million in 2013, $8 million in 2014, and $10.5 million in 2015. In 2016, the team will hold an option for $14 million with a $1 million buyout. 

What would be even better is if the Royals could get even more of the contract front loaded. For example, making the signing bonus $2 million, then in years 2-4 spreading the money out evenly at $9 million per year. Of course, saving $1.5 million in 2015 may not be a huge deal either way.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gordon signs a four year extension worth anywhere between $32-40 million. Anything in this range is probably a good deal for Kansas City. If the value falls on the low end it is a great deal for Kansas City. If the Royals can get a team option or two tacked on to the end of the contract even better.

So what are your predictions? When will Gordon sign an extension? What will the value be? How will it be structured? How many years?

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