Sorry About the Wait, Dinner is Served

(Time for me to eat some crow.)

Entering the season I feared the Royals would give the last rotation spot to Luis Mendoza instead of Felipe Paulino. Despite very pedestrian peripheral numbers in Omaha, it seemed the organization had bought into Mendoza's Pacific Coast League leading 2.18 ERA. Not to mention former Royals starter Phillip Humber was coming off a season in which he found some success in the White Sox rotation.

It seemed as though the Royals would be so determined to not allow another starter to slip through their fingers, that they would overlook certain statistics which appeared to show that Mendoza had no right to hold down a spot in a Major League rotation. Eventually, injuries occurred and Mendoza broke camp in the big league rotation.

I tried to look at the bright side. You know, at least this way the Royals can find out he doesn't belong and move on. After four starts, an ERA of 6.00 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 0.55, it finally appeared that the rose colored glasses would be cast aside and the dream of Mendoza in the rotation would finally come to an end.

Instead the Royals rotation was swamped by injury. Starters Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy, and Jonathan Sanchez all hit the disabled list and the Royals needed arms to fill out their abysmal rotation. Mendoza, who had shown marginal improvement as a long man was given another shot, almost more by default than anything else.

But then something happened. Perhaps, Mendoza made a mechanical adjustment. Perhaps, he grew a pair of gonads and began to challenge hitters, or perhaps he found a lucky rabbit's foot. Whatever it was, Mendoza started striking some guys out. Since his return to the rotation Mendoza is striking out 6.3 batters per nine innings. When you consider that in the same time frame he has lowered his bb/9 to 2.3 and that he is getting more ground balls than ever it isn't hard to see why he has quickly changed his reputation among Royals fans.

Watching Mendoza you can tell that he is a different pitcher than he was at the beginning of the year. Typically, I try to avoid broad statements and gut feels in my writing but the dude is just pitching with more confidence. His fastball has more life than any Royals starter and since his return to the rotation he is 4-5 with a 3.64 ERA.

The Royals are clearly in desperate need of front line starting pitching heading into next season. But the Royals also need to figure out a way to field the middle and back of the rotation. Just a couple of months ago one may have wondered if the Royals had a single starter deserving of a spot in the 2013 rotation. Today, it appears that at least one of those spots should be filled by Luis Mendoza.

Belated Notes on Elier Hernandez

About a month ago I had the opportunity to watch the Idaho Falls Chukars play in several games. During that time I took some notes on several players, one of which was outfielder Elier Hernandez. So here are a few of my thoughts on the seventeen year old Dominican outfielder.

First off, Hernandez absolutely looks like a Major Leaguer. Despite being one of the youngest players on the Pioneer League circuit he offers one of the most advanced bodies. My only concern is that Hernandez looked a bit thick in the lower half. He isn't fat, but I can't imagine him as anything more than a corner outfielder.

Fielding wise, Hernandez wasn't exactly smooth in right field. On three occasions he either slid or dove to make catches and on only one of those attempts did he come down with the ball. The problem with each of these attempts is that in my opinion none of them were necessary.

Hernandez also struggled at the dish. He consistently was over aggressive at the plate and was extremely pull happy. At the same time, in the three games he did show flashes of the talent that led many in the industry to believe he was the top international prospect in last June's class.

Despite only getting the chance to observe Hernandez for a handful of games I saw his tools on full display. Several times he put pressure on the defense on routine grounders thanks to his speed and hustle. I also, saw an impressive arm from right field. Finally, the power and bat speed was on full display when Hernandez jumped on an inside fastball blasting it deep over the left field fence. Unfortunately the wind was incredibly strong that day and pushed the ball just foul.

In Hernandez's final at bat of the final game I watched him, I hammered one deep into the right-center field alley. It was kind of a poetic end to a series in which the raw but extremely talented Hernandez at times looked way over matched. Assigning Hernandez to the Pioneer League was without a doubt an aggressive assignment for the youngster, but in a few games he never looked out matched. It isn't hard to dream on Elier Hernandez.

Royals Trade Broxton

I woke up this morning truly believing that the Royals deadline would end quietly. Instead, the Royals did the wise thing and flipped Jonathan Broxton to the Reds. In the trade the Royals acquired two minor leaguers and in the opinion of some made off like bandits. Here's a collection of information in each of the two prospects that are coming to Kansas City.

Juancarlos Sulbaran: Entered the season ranked as the 12th best prospect in the Reds' system according to Baseball America as well as having the system's top curveball. At this point some considered Sulbaran to be the fifth best prospect in the system. Also, John Sickels graded Sulbaran as a C+ prospect, but also considered him a potential sleeper. Sulbaran typically sits in the low 90s, and has been clocked as high as 95. He is also said to show flashes of a plus curveball and changeup, although both still need consistency.

Last season, Sulbaran took a huge step forward in the California League recording 155 strikeouts to 50 walks. This season, the former 30th round selection has improved his ERA to 4.06, despite his K:BB dropping down around 2. Sulbaran is said to have the upside of a #3 starter with a high amount of risk.

Donnie Joseph: Entered the season ranked as the 27th best prospect in the Reds system. He is said to have two plus pitches in his fastball and slider. As of this moment Joseph could probably hold his own as a lefty specialist. Long term, Joseph could very well find a spot in the late innings as a set up man. Also, John Mayo provided us with the opinion of a scout who believed that Joseph as of right now would have been just as good of an option as Broxton to set up for Cincinnati. That same scout also said that he viewed Joseph as a future closer.

I can't imagine any educated Royals' fan being disappointed with this deal. If nothing else, moving Broxton saves the Royals $1.8 million and allows the team to use the remaining two months as a dress rehearsal for newly anointed closer Greg Holland.

As for the prospects, I would have been happy if the Royals would have grabbed just one of the two aforementioned players. The fact that the Royals were not able to grab a near Major League ready starter as well as a Major League ready reliever is even better. Of course, on a day when the Cardinals traded a former first round draft pick for an average reliever, it shouldn't come as too big of a shock that former Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak gave up two quality prospects for a couple months of a reliever.

The Broxton signing should go down as the Dayton Moore's top offseason acquisition. In an offseason that required perfection in order for the Royals to jump the gap, the Broxton signing was one of the few positives. However after Soria went down, Broxton absolutely provided the Royals with what they needed. A few months later the one year deal has now turned itself into potentially 6 seasons of control for a set up man, and 6 more for a mid rotation starter. But like I said, even if neither prospect pans out, the two months of closer experience for Holland should make the whole thing worthwhile.

Notes on Adalberto Mondesi

I recently had the privilege of watching Adalberto Mondesi play in several games. So, I thought I'd offer up some of my thoughts on the recently turned seventeen year old. First off, I don't pretend to be a scout but I do believe that observations can be made by anyone. Since most Royals fans have never had the opportunity to watch this kid play, it only made sense to pass forward some of my thoughts.

In case you are unaware, Adalberto Mondesi signed for $2 million last July. He is a short stop and he is the son of former Major League Raul Mondesi. Despite being the youngest player in his league and the fourth youngest player in all of Rookie League baseball, Mondesi has hit .315/.379/.402 in twenty-two games this season.

Upon signing with the Royals, Mondesi was said to be 5-11 and 160 pounds. His player profile on MinorLeagueBaseball.com lists him at 6-1, 165. I can't be totally sure of his height based off my vantage point, but he definitely has a build very similar to Alcides Escobar. Defensively, he was very adept at charging balls and routinely displayed a very strong throwing arm. However, there were two occasions during the four games I watched that he committed errors on balls to his right.

On these plays Mondesi attempted to backhand the ball, and each time the ball ricocheted off his glove. But on both plays, Mondesi also was able to snatch the ball out of the error and fire to first making the play close despite the miscue. Sometimes even errors can show the athleticism of a particular fielder. Also keep in mind that this is a minor year old already playing in the Pioneer League.

When the Royals signed Mondesi, skeptics would have likely pointed to the bat as a reason of developmental concern. Clearly, Mondesi is doing his best to alleviate those fears. I saw a guy that obviously knew how to handle the bat. He had good bat speed, and other than an at bat against Damien Magnifico (look him up) I don't recall seeing him get a single pitch blown by him.

Mondesi's plate approach was also very promising in my eyes. Even though he was normally several years younger than the pitchers he was facing he always had a good plan at the plate. He picked his spots to sell out for a bit more power and would buckle down with two strikes. He didn't show much power in those four games, but he did show a consistent line drive stroke using the whole field from both sides of the plate.

Mondesi is a guy who should really shoot up prospect rankings this winter, assuming he can keep up the pace in the second half. I definitely will be bumping him way up my personal ranks. I've got some notes on several other Royals prospects and in particular I plan on writing a post focusing on Elier Hernandez and another on Jin-Ho Shin. Stay tuned.

Royals Acquire Guthrie for Sanchez

Early this morning we learned that the Kansas City Royals acquired Jeremy Guthrie from the Colorado Rockies for Jonathan Sanchez. I have to admit that when Sanchez was DFA-ed earlier in the week I fully expected him to request his papers and move on. Instead, the Royals were somehow able to grab at least something for perhaps the most disappointing pitcher ever to don the Royals blue.

Jeremy Guthrie entering 2012 was a guy who could be relied upon to provide his team with 200 innings of average to slightly above average performance. He wasn't a front end guy, but he was consistent and dependable, the kind of guy that the Royals just can't seem to find when filling out their own rotation.

However, in 2012 things took a turn for the worse. Guthrie was traded to the Rockies and as a fly ball pitcher it wasn't exactly a match made in heaven. Opposing hitters have absolutely crushed Guthrie particularly in Coors Field where they are hitting .368/.415/.720. I'll give you a second to take that in. In 9 games in Coors Field this season Guthrie has turned National League lineups into lineups that would include guys like The Great Bambino, The Sultan of Swat, The King of Crash, and Babe Ruth making every hitter seem as though they were an alter ego of the greatest hitter of all time.

While Sanchez's problems seem to stem from a loss in velocity that eliminated his best weapon, which in turn forced him to rely on other less dynamic pitches resulting in a total loss of command, (exhale) Guthrie appears to have simply lost the ability to throw the ball past hitters. His walk rate is up over three for the first time since his rookie season, but it is his drop in strikeout rate by over one per nine innings and a doubling in his home run rate that has been a huge problem.

The good news is this, Kauffman Stadium while not a pitcher's park does do a good job of suppressing home runs. Guthrie is a fly ball pitcher that has never had the opportunity to pitch in a park that favors fly ball pitchers. This season, Guthrie's HR/FB has nearly doubled from last year all the way to 18.6%. This is an astronomical number and if Kauffman can push it back down to his around 10% Guthrie should at least be serviceable. This may be asking for a lot, but don't forget about  Bruce Chen whom posted HR/FB of 17.4% and 21.4% in Baltimore and Texas before seeing that number shrink to 11% and then eventually settling at 8.1% for the following two seasons.

Also of note, Sanchez's poor performance stemmed largely from a decrease in velocity. However, this is not the case with Guthrie whose velocity seems to have stayed constant based on Fangraphs' pitch data. Hopefully, Guthrie will be an example of a guy whose game just didn't fit the park in which he was playing. Based on his pitch selection, he hasn't lost confidence in any of his pitches, so perhaps a change of scenery will do him some good. Although, I have to admit that this is an optimistic take on a guy with a 6.35 ERA.

Ultimately, this isn't a trade to get to worked up about. Both starters are going to be free agents after the season and both are owed roughly the same amount of money. I'm sure what both teams are hoping is that moving back into the leagues in which the starters found success will do them both good. For the Royals, Guthrie will hopefully find a way to at least eat innings through the remainder of the season, saving the bullpen a bit from the incredible taxation they've had to pay. At this point it is hard to imagine that either Guthrie or Sanchez will pitch for their new teams past the end of September.