So with the addition of Bruce Chen and the obviousness that Aaron Crow is expected to be given every opportunity to transition into the rotation, here is where we stand:
Luke Hochevar
Jonathan Sanchez
Bruce Chen
Felipe Paulino
Danny Duffy
Aaron Crow
Mike Montgomery
Here is a scenario that I could envision playing out. The first four guys on this list make the club out of Spring Training. The last three on the list compete all Spring for the final rotation spot and when it comes time to break camp are all assigned to Omaha.
There are several reasons for this..
1. A fifth starter spot will not be needed until early to mid May. I saw the exact date a couple of weeks ago, but I remember being a bit surprised how far into the season it actually was. I don't think you really can bring them allow as a swing man for a month before they start, so this would be a factor in only having the 5th starter go to Omaha. If they do elect to have a swing man look for either Duffy, Crow, or Monty to be in the rotation from the start and Paulino to be the guy
2. Also, by sending the last three guys on the above list to Omaha, the Royals will gain an extra month to evaluate which belongs in the rotation. Each of the three are young, and each have options. Not to mention that all three of the young arms still need to prove themselves at that level before a shot. Monty struggled in Omaha last year, and the Royals need all the evaluation for Crow that they can get.
Obviously, whether or not Crow can get out Pacific Coast League hitters will not show us definitively if he can start in the Majors, it will give us more information. Better to go off of that than Crow's results in Spring Training, at least the games in Omaha would be competitive.
3. Finally, the Royals could use the extra month and a half as a way to manipulate the service time of the three pitchers. Duffy is going to be right around the Super Two cutoff now. Crow could gain a year under team control if he spends about a month and a half in Omaha.
If all three pitchers perform well in Omaha, the Royals will have a great problem on their hands. One can join the rotation when the fifth starter is needed, and the other two can await an open spot due to injury or poor performance as they continue to hone their craft at the minor league level.
It is very possible that Duffy, Crow or Monty could emerge as one of the top starters on the team in Spring. I want to be clear that I'm not advocating for the Royals to not put the best team on the field. In fact I'm not really lobbying for this plan at all, I am just presenting it as a scenario in which I believe things could play out this Spring.
PS. I know that didn't mention Everett Teaford here. I think Teaford should be given every opportunity to win a rotation spot as well. But I think he could best serve this team as a swing man.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Royals Shock World; Sign Broxton
Granted the title of this post might be slightly exaggerated. However, I think that most within the industry are shocked by this Royals acquisition. As we have seen early on the closer market has been particularly harsh on team's looking to upgrade their closer position. Sure there are several quality options, but those guys are going to cost teams some major cash.
What is shocking is that for several teams Jonathan Broxton was likely an extremely appealing option. For the first four seasons of his career he was a dominating reliever, in 2010 he suffered some hard luck and had an inflated ERA and then in 2011 Broxton spent most of the year on the disabled list. For a team like the Rays, I thought Broxton was a great opportunity to buy low a guy with back end experience.
From a Royals perspective I hadn't even given Broxton much thought. Even after trading for Jonathan Sanchez and signing Bruce Chen the Royals clearly need an upgrade to their rotation before they become a trendy pick to win the AL Central. I expected the Royals to bring in a bench piece or hopefully extend Gordon before Spring Training, but I didn't expect anything of value on the Bullpen front.
Apparently though Dayton Moore, like myself, believes in the philosophy of always needing another arm for the bullpen. Given the inconsistency of even the top relief pitchers in baseball, I'm glad this is the case. Not to mention the Royals could be in need of another arm should Aaron Crow make a smooth transition to the rotation as the Royals are hoping.
*I'm not suggesting that the Royals weren't already planning to move Crow to rotation, but adding a bullpen arm definitely makes loss of Crow in bullpen less of a deterrent.)
Of course there is a train of thought among Royals' fans that makes the Broxton acquisition even more exciting. The Royals added Broxton to fill the role that is about to be vacated when they deal Joakim Soria.
I admit that it seems a little more than coincidental that one night a Toronto Sports writer reports that the Royals are interested in Colby Rasmus, and then the next day the Royals sign Jonathan Broxton. Of course the Blue Jays have also been pretty clear that they are interesting in acquiring a closer. Do I expect a trade to occur? No, but it definitely is fun to speculate.
For now I want to leave it at this, the Royals have improved a strength. The rumor is that they were unhappy with the free agent market for starting pitchers and instead opted to improve what was already shaping to be one of the top bullpens in baseball.
I definitely find it odd that a team in the Royals position will be paying 25% of their payroll to two guys at the back of their bullpen ($6 mill for Soria, $4 mill plus $1 mill in incentives for Broxton), but if Aaron Crow transitions to the rotation as we all hope it will be nice for the bullpen to not be an arm down.
Now Dayton Moore has made it clear that Broxton was brought in to set up Joakim Soria in 2012. I am aware of this, but let's not be naive. Whether or not Moore is planning on dealing Soria, he is going to make this comment. Moore isn't going to say that yes he plans on trading Soria. Get real. Moore's comments on the subject at this point really are meaningless in whether or not you believe the Royals will trade Soria.
Now if you still are someone that believes Dayton Moore's words are the truth, consider that maybe Broxton will be setting up for Soria in 2012. So what happens to the Royals set up men? Crow could be in the rotation, but what about Holland? I could imagine Holland gaining quite a bit of interest in other teams (edit: I just read the Blue Jays are interested in Holland.)
I like the Broxton move. I realize that the bullpen is the least of the Royals concerns this offseason. However, I like the idea of fortifying a strength just in case. The move opens up a lot of options for the Royals and gives them more depth in case Crow and/or another bullpen arm transition to the rotation. There's no such thing as a bad one year deal and $4 million for Broxton isn't going to change my mind even if he doesn't come back from his 2011 injury.
What is shocking is that for several teams Jonathan Broxton was likely an extremely appealing option. For the first four seasons of his career he was a dominating reliever, in 2010 he suffered some hard luck and had an inflated ERA and then in 2011 Broxton spent most of the year on the disabled list. For a team like the Rays, I thought Broxton was a great opportunity to buy low a guy with back end experience.
From a Royals perspective I hadn't even given Broxton much thought. Even after trading for Jonathan Sanchez and signing Bruce Chen the Royals clearly need an upgrade to their rotation before they become a trendy pick to win the AL Central. I expected the Royals to bring in a bench piece or hopefully extend Gordon before Spring Training, but I didn't expect anything of value on the Bullpen front.
Apparently though Dayton Moore, like myself, believes in the philosophy of always needing another arm for the bullpen. Given the inconsistency of even the top relief pitchers in baseball, I'm glad this is the case. Not to mention the Royals could be in need of another arm should Aaron Crow make a smooth transition to the rotation as the Royals are hoping.
*I'm not suggesting that the Royals weren't already planning to move Crow to rotation, but adding a bullpen arm definitely makes loss of Crow in bullpen less of a deterrent.)
Of course there is a train of thought among Royals' fans that makes the Broxton acquisition even more exciting. The Royals added Broxton to fill the role that is about to be vacated when they deal Joakim Soria.
I admit that it seems a little more than coincidental that one night a Toronto Sports writer reports that the Royals are interested in Colby Rasmus, and then the next day the Royals sign Jonathan Broxton. Of course the Blue Jays have also been pretty clear that they are interesting in acquiring a closer. Do I expect a trade to occur? No, but it definitely is fun to speculate.
For now I want to leave it at this, the Royals have improved a strength. The rumor is that they were unhappy with the free agent market for starting pitchers and instead opted to improve what was already shaping to be one of the top bullpens in baseball.
I definitely find it odd that a team in the Royals position will be paying 25% of their payroll to two guys at the back of their bullpen ($6 mill for Soria, $4 mill plus $1 mill in incentives for Broxton), but if Aaron Crow transitions to the rotation as we all hope it will be nice for the bullpen to not be an arm down.
Now Dayton Moore has made it clear that Broxton was brought in to set up Joakim Soria in 2012. I am aware of this, but let's not be naive. Whether or not Moore is planning on dealing Soria, he is going to make this comment. Moore isn't going to say that yes he plans on trading Soria. Get real. Moore's comments on the subject at this point really are meaningless in whether or not you believe the Royals will trade Soria.
Now if you still are someone that believes Dayton Moore's words are the truth, consider that maybe Broxton will be setting up for Soria in 2012. So what happens to the Royals set up men? Crow could be in the rotation, but what about Holland? I could imagine Holland gaining quite a bit of interest in other teams (edit: I just read the Blue Jays are interested in Holland.)
I like the Broxton move. I realize that the bullpen is the least of the Royals concerns this offseason. However, I like the idea of fortifying a strength just in case. The move opens up a lot of options for the Royals and gives them more depth in case Crow and/or another bullpen arm transition to the rotation. There's no such thing as a bad one year deal and $4 million for Broxton isn't going to change my mind even if he doesn't come back from his 2011 injury.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Prospect Countdown: #42 Adalberto Mondesi
#42 Adalberto Mondesi
Position: SS
Age: 16
Height: 5-11
Weight: 160
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Signed as Intl Free Agent on 7/27/11
The Royals have made a habit of signing slender defensive minded shortstops out of the Dominican over the past couple of seasons. This is a habit that I fully endorse. However, I expect that with the cap now instituted for International Amateurs this habit will change. I still anticipate the signings of players similar to Adalberto Mondesi's ability and projection, but I suspect he is the exact kind of player whose bonus will be greatly suppressed by the new rules.
Mondesi is so skinny that it is clear his body won't push him out of the shortstop position. According to Baseball America Mondesi is a good runner with an average arm. Of course needless to say Mondesi has strong bloodlines, being the son of former Major Leaguer Raul Mondesi.
For those of you familiar with the development of Latin American prospects, the transition to American life and culture is often a pivotal step. Because Mondesi comes from the family that he does, he already has an advantage over his peers in this regard.
I expect Mondesi to be assigned to the Arizona League Royals after spending the early summer months in the warm environment of extended Spring Training.
Position: SS
Age: 16
Height: 5-11
Weight: 160
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Signed as Intl Free Agent on 7/27/11
The Royals have made a habit of signing slender defensive minded shortstops out of the Dominican over the past couple of seasons. This is a habit that I fully endorse. However, I expect that with the cap now instituted for International Amateurs this habit will change. I still anticipate the signings of players similar to Adalberto Mondesi's ability and projection, but I suspect he is the exact kind of player whose bonus will be greatly suppressed by the new rules.
Mondesi is so skinny that it is clear his body won't push him out of the shortstop position. According to Baseball America Mondesi is a good runner with an average arm. Of course needless to say Mondesi has strong bloodlines, being the son of former Major Leaguer Raul Mondesi.
For those of you familiar with the development of Latin American prospects, the transition to American life and culture is often a pivotal step. Because Mondesi comes from the family that he does, he already has an advantage over his peers in this regard.
I expect Mondesi to be assigned to the Arizona League Royals after spending the early summer months in the warm environment of extended Spring Training.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
On the Market: Rich Harden
Dayton Moore stated after signing Bruce Chen that the Royals were hoping to acquire another starter before the end of the offseason. If the Royals do that I will feel much more comfortable with the Royals decision to bring back the reigning Royals pitcher of the year Bruce Chen. Let me continue by stating that I don't want Rich Harden to be that "one more starter." I simply think that if the Royals can take a flyer on a guy, he would be a great guy to grab one on.First, we need to establish that Rich Harden will qualify as a flyer type of guy in 2012. Based off his 2011, performance I can't see his value increasing for 2011. Considering he only made $1.5 million last season as an Oakland Athletic he should be in a very low cost range. If the I could nab Harden for anything less than what he made last season, I do it in a heartbeat.
Yes, I know that in the past two seasons Harden has made only 33 starts and has posted a 5.36 era in 174.2 innings. But if you look deeper into his 2011, numbers there are signs that he was returning to pre-2010 form.
On the most basic level, Harden's fastball velocity rose 1.2 mph, after it dropped 1.6 mph the year before. Given that Harden has always relied heavily on just a two pitch mix, I suspect that this return of velocity was a strong factor in Harden's K/9 rising from 7.3 in 2010 to 9.9 in 2011. (Harden's K/9 prior to 2010 was 9.4.)
On a deeper level we find that Harden's swinging strike percentage which came in at just 7.7% in 2010, jumped up to 12% in 2012. Harden's contact percentage which was 82% in 2010 dropped off to 72% for 2011. In short I think it is pretty obvious that Harden, while not entirely regaining his pre-2010 form in 2011, was much more similar that version of himself than the 2010 version.
Of course the big problem for Harden in 2011, was his growing inability to keep the ball out of the air. The Coliseum historically has suppressed offensive output, thanks in large part to it's incredibly huge foul grounds, but in terms of suppressing home run totals, it doesn't work as well as The K. Harden's HR/9 has climbed considerably over the past several seasons, but if The K could mitigate Harden's home run totals he could take a huge step toward performing closer to his xFIP than his ERA.
By the way in 2011, Harden's xFIP came in at 3.68, considerably lower than his ERA of 5.12. I'm not guaranteeing that Rich Harden is going to rebound back to pre-2010 form in 2012. But for a flyer he would definitely appear to be worth the risk in my mind.
Obviously the white elephant in the room is Harden's propensity to spend large portions of the season on the disable list. This weighs into the risk, but in all seriousness Harden wouldn't even be an option here if he was a guy that could keep himself healthy.
Despite starting just 15 games in 2011 for the Athletics, Harden was able to net the team $2 million in value according to Fangraphs. Even if the Royals were only able to get 15-20 starts out of Harden in 2012, if those starters were of the same quality as his starts in 2011 the Royals would get more than fair value.
Also, even if the Royals' hand was forced, due to Mike Montgomery or Jake Odorizzi the Royals could deal Harden at the deadline for a prospect. Given his low salary I am sure there would be plenty of interested teams. If Harden doesn't perform it would be very simple to just cut ties at midseason or give him an opportunity to reestablish himself in the bullpen.
(Actually, given Harden's two pitch mix and injury history, it might not be a bad gamble for some teams to sign Harden just for the purpose of trying him in the bullpen.)
I doubt the Royals take the chance on Harden, and like I said if this was the only other pitching addition the Royals make in the offseason it will be disappointing. However, as an extra arm the rewards for Harden could be great, especially when you consider how weak the rotation is. Good teams have depth, it isn't a coincidence that the last two teams Harden has signed with were Texas, and Oakland. Two teams that have quality rotations already saw the potential reward in Harden, why wouldn't a team desperate for pitching take a shot? Why not?
Prospect Countdown: #43 Daniel Mateo
#43 Daniel Mateo
Position: 2B
Age: 20
Height: 6-1
Weight: 178
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent
From: San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
Daniel Mateo makes the list thanks to being arguably the most consistent hitter on the Idaho Falls roster for 2011. Mateo unlike many other mashers in the Pioneer League isn't a college graduate, instead he was a teenager just a couple of years out of the Dominican.
Now I should mention that Mateo's BABIP came in at a lofty .412. This sounds ridiculously high. But when you find that the league average BABIP was .345 and that Mateo's line drive percentage was higher than league average his BABIP doesn't sound nearly as insane.
Actually there is also the issue that only 11% of Mateo's flyballs left the yard in 2011, which doesn't compare favorably to the league average percentage of just over 14%. Basically when looking at the numbers I would have expected Mateo's batting average to be slightly lower in 2011, with his home run total and slugging percentage to have been just a tick higher.
Mateo has spent the most time as a shortstop, but I see the Royals shifting him to second. I have read reports that his defense is average at short, but if the Royals do move him to the opposite side of the bag, his defense should play up.
Mateo should get an opportunity to be the starting second baseman for Kane County in 2012. If he struggles he could be pulled out of the league and return to Idaho Falls when short season ball picks up. If he hits the ground running and continues to hit, he could shoot up these rankings.
Picture credit Idaho Falls Chukars' team website.
Position: 2B
Age: 20
Height: 6-1
Weight: 178
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent
From: San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
Daniel Mateo makes the list thanks to being arguably the most consistent hitter on the Idaho Falls roster for 2011. Mateo unlike many other mashers in the Pioneer League isn't a college graduate, instead he was a teenager just a couple of years out of the Dominican.
Now I should mention that Mateo's BABIP came in at a lofty .412. This sounds ridiculously high. But when you find that the league average BABIP was .345 and that Mateo's line drive percentage was higher than league average his BABIP doesn't sound nearly as insane.
Actually there is also the issue that only 11% of Mateo's flyballs left the yard in 2011, which doesn't compare favorably to the league average percentage of just over 14%. Basically when looking at the numbers I would have expected Mateo's batting average to be slightly lower in 2011, with his home run total and slugging percentage to have been just a tick higher.
Mateo has spent the most time as a shortstop, but I see the Royals shifting him to second. I have read reports that his defense is average at short, but if the Royals do move him to the opposite side of the bag, his defense should play up.
Mateo should get an opportunity to be the starting second baseman for Kane County in 2012. If he struggles he could be pulled out of the league and return to Idaho Falls when short season ball picks up. If he hits the ground running and continues to hit, he could shoot up these rankings.
Picture credit Idaho Falls Chukars' team website.
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