Prospect Countdown: 35-31

35. Kelvin Herrera RHP



Herrera was signed in 2006, as a sixteen year old international free agent. Since then he has performed famously while on the mound. Unfortunately in the past two seasons he has only been on the mound enough to make 9 starts. He still has a great arm, but his injuries are starting to blur the image of him making it to the majors.

Apparently the latest elbow injury is the result of an attempt to make his mechanics less injury conducive. However, he overcompensated which resulted in him shortening his stride which caused more damage. The good news is that reports out of instructional league were good and that his stuff is still as strong as ever.

Herrera wields a low 90s fastball that at times can reach the mid 90s. He also has a potential plus pitch in his changeup and an average slider-curve hybrid. Herrera is a diminutive righty that has already lost his fair share of time due to injury, so a move to the bullpen could be in his future.

It'd be a shame because he has such a great arm and before his injury woes the Royals raved about his poise on the mound even giving him a start in the Midwest League playoffs as an eighteen year old. But a career as a Major League reliever is a lot better than no career at all.

I am not sure if Herrera will be rule five eligible after the 2011 season or the 2012 season. But if it is 2011, I could envision a scenario where he is one of the most appealing prospects available. But before that happens Herrera needs to put together an effective season. I'd like to see him in Wilmington to start the year, but a return to the Midwest League is probably most likely.

34. Nicholas Francis OF



In 2009, Mike Moustakas spent the entire season at the unfriendly confines of Frawley Stadium in the Carolina League. While in the Carolina Circuit he hit 16 homers in 442 at bats, which comes out to 1 home run per 27.6 at bats. This sounds like an extremely unimpressive total. However in the ten seasons prior to 2010, the average home run leader for the Wilmington Blue Rocks hit 12.9 bombs in an average of 457.1 at bats. This works out to 1 dinger for every 28.2 at bats. But if you remove Cody Strait's 2008 outlier when he hit 13 homers in just 196 at bats. You then arrive at a nine year average of 486.1 at bats per season and a at bat per home run ratio of 37.7:1

I bring this up because in 2010, the Blue Rock leader in home runs was a rightfielder by the name of Nicholas Francis and his at bats per home ratio was just 20.9. He also stroked twenty-seven other extra base hits and posted a slugging percentage of .516. Impressive power numbers for a player in his first stint in Wilmington.

Of course I should probably mention that the reason that Francis only played in 84 games was because he began the season with a fifty game suspension for a drug related issue. Unfortunately I'm not sure if what type of drug it was that came back as a positive on the test. Nonetheless it isn't something you want to happen to a prospect. This is especially true when the prospect is already old for his level, like Francis.

Francis's power seems to be a bit underrated and I would not be shocked if he posted 20+ homers in Northwest Arkansas in 2011. However, it is also very possible that he gets lost in the outfield shuffle with Tim Smith, Derrick Robinson, Wil Myers, and possibly even Paulo Orlando and Derrick Robinson. I hope that the Royals push him to double A and find him consistent at bats because the power upside could be huge.

This is probably an over ranking but I wanted to make sure that I made sure that people noticed that the power potential was there.


33. Buddy Baumann LHP



Not wanting to miss out on another Shaun Marcum the Royals have made a strong commitment to controlling the backyard. As a part of this strategy the Royals selected lefty Buddy Baumann out of Missouri State in the seventh round of the 2009 draft. At the time of the selection Baumann possessed three average pitches with a good pitch no how.

His velocity has been up since he move to professional baseball and now consistently can hit the gun between 90-92, sometimes even getting as high as 94. To go with that are the average slider and changeup.

After dominating in the pen for the first half of the season, the Blue Rocks moved Baumann to the rotation in June. There he saw his numbers get even better. I'd like to see Baumann to get continued development as a starter, however he has proven that he requires a promotion to double A and with the arms that should begin the season in Springdale he will probably get moved back into the pen. I think he has the potential to be a back end starter or a 6th or 7th inning reliever.

32. Everett Teaford LHP



I watched Teaford for most of the season with the Naturals and I can attest to the fact that he was a different pitcher in the second half of the season. There was a point when he was moved to the bullpen as several of the top arms began to trickle in and it seems that he took that decision personally. Becuse for the rest of the season Teaford was lights out.

I am not sure if this was the case in the beginning of the season because I can't remember, but I can say that just about everyday at the ballpark, while the team was preparing for the game. I saw Teaford either preparing to pitch, or if it wasn't his turn I saw him sweating due to working out or running. I know that to get to this level nearly every player puts in plenty of his work, but for whatever reason the image of Teaford running on the track when the other players hadn't taken the field yet has stuck with me.

I also remember a time when Teaford, frustrated by his defense's performance yelled for his teammates to get going in the dugout. The coaches didn't say or do anything in response but what happened from there on was one of the better comebacks of the Naturals season. I wish that I could remember the specific game, but I saw so many Naturals comebacks this summer that it isn't a shock to me that I can't.

The key to Teaford's strong second half and his earning a spot on the 40 man roster was his spike in velocity that has resulted in his fastball now being clocked consistently in the low 90s as opposed to the high 80s where it had been previously. Perhaps with his improved velocity or arm speed his curveball was also able to add some bite and now could one day be a plus pitch. He also has shown a propensity for a change and cutter.

Teaford has good control and a solid arsenal, but if he struggles he could very easily be passed by the highly touted arms that are looming like a T-Rex in his rearview mirror. It has been discussed that he could earn a spot in the big league rotation in Spring, however I expect him to open the year in the Omaha rotation. If he has a strong first half he should be in position to be given the opportunity to replace Francis or Chen if they are dealt at the deadline.

31. Clint Robinson 1B



Clint Robinson continues to progress a level at a time and he continues to hit. Although the latter may be an understatement considering in 2010 he brought home the Triple Crown title for the Texas League. There has been a lot of hype about the top prospects that enabled the Naturals to win the Texas League title. However, you can't overstate Robinson's value from a development and competitive standpoint by providing protection for Moustakas and Hosmer.

There were a countless number of times that one of the aforementioned players would be intentionally walked and Robinson would make them pay with towering home runs into the night or with doubles into the gap. I also believe that Robinson has a type of leadership quality that goes unnoticed by a one or two time viewer. He was always even keeled and he always provided a veteran type calming presence to what was a young Naturals team for most of the season.

Robinson's future in the organization is hazy due to the presence of Eric Hosmer right behind him and Kila Ka'aihue and Billy Butler directly ahead of him. Partly for this reason the Royals tested him in the outfield a bit during pregame drills and even once that I can remember in game action (it was a disaster). Even though he struggled mightily I hope that the Royals don't totally abandon that idea.

At this point it seems like the best case scenario for both Robinson and the Royals is that he continues to rake and is packaged at some point for something of value and he is given the opportunity to play elsewhere. Or that he learns to play a serviceable left field and can be a valuable bat off of the bench.

In other organizations or other years bloggers would be salivating over Robinson's numbers even though he is already twenty-five. However, with the quality of the Royals system he seems to get lost in the shuffle considering how strong his numbers were in 2010. Personally after watching Clint Robinson and the way he conducted himself on and off for an entire summer, I will always have a special place in my heart for the Alabama Hamma.

Prospect Countdown: 40-36

40. Crawford Simmons LHP



Crawford Simmons was a Royals bonus baby of the 2009 draft. A two sport star in high school, Simmons had a scholarship in hand to attend Georgia Tech University in the Fall of 2010. Instead the Royals took a flyer on him in the 14th round and lured him away from collegiate athletics with a $450,000 signing bonus.

Simmons entered the 2010 season rated as the #26 best prospect in the Royals' system according to Baseball America. As you can see from the stats above he dominated 2011 and the fact that he ranks just fortieth in my personal countdown doesn't mean that his stock has slid one bit as a prospect.

Simmons possesses a three pitch mix of fastball, curveball, and changeup. His 12-6 curveball is at times a plus pitch and his change according to one scout his changeup was the best the Appalachian League had to offer in 2010. Though his secondary offerings are strong his prospect status will hinge on his ability to add some velocity to his fastball, which was clocked in just the high 80s entering the season.

Simmons doesn't get great arm speed, however he has a 6-2 frame that could suggest a slight increase in velocity. If he can obtain any sort of increase he has mid rotation potential. If he continues to work in the high 80s his command and plus secondary offerings should still allow him to one day pitch in the back end of a Major League rotation.

I expect Simmons to begin the year in extended Spring Training, or open as a member of a very strong Kane County Cougar rotation.

39. Lane Adams OF



Like Simmons, Adams was a two sport athlete in high school. Instead of gold though, Adams was a basketball standout at Red Oak High School in Oklahoma averaging over 30 points per game his senior season and obtaining a basketball scholarship for Cuanzo Martin and the Missouri State Bears.

Instead of heading to Missouri State and playing in the Missouri Valley Conference though, Adams was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 13th round of the 2009 draft and signed away from his basketball scholarship with a $300,000 bonus.

Lane is a high upside guy that could rise fast if it comes together (think Hilton Richardson). In Idaho Falls he displayed good contact with promising pop in a 41 game stint. He also was a perfect 8 for 8 in the stolen base department.

I have read that he plays an all out style in the outfield and has a strong arm that could profile in right. He should team up with Hilton Richardson this summer in Kane County. Hopefully the good baseball environment can benefit the pair of them and they can translate those tools into results and leap up the prospect charts.

38. Justin Marks LHP

The Royals knew that if they would have declined DeJesus's option and offered him arbitration with him declining they would have obtained a supplemental draft pick in return. Instead they elected to accept the option and trade DeJesus for Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks. Since the trade Dayton Moore explained that the club and it's scouts felt as though Marks was the equivalent to a supplemental pick and thus a major reason why the pulled the trigger on the deal.

Marks was drafted out of Louisville in the third round of the 2009 draft after a very strong collegiate career for the Cardinals. Currently Marks possesses four average pitches: fastball, slider, curveball, and a changeup. Unfortunately Marks doesn't progress a plus pitch, which could extremely limit his development.

Marks pitches out of a 3/4s arm slot and tends to get an above average amount of groundballs as he pitches downhill very well. Marks is extremely polished and I don't see much projection left. Since his command is strong and he already knows how to use his arsenal of pitches, he could rise quickly. Although with the quality of arms ahead of him he may not have the stuff to pass them.

Marks could begin the season in either Wilmington or Northwest Arkansas. I think they will determine where he begins based on how other pitchers pitch in Spring with Marks taking the opposite spot depending on which rotation needs another arm.

37. Humberto Arteaga SS

I don't know much about Arteaga or Caxito, but I do know that they were both signed to huge bonus as Latin American shortstops. The organization obviously thinks very much of both and their signings have both greatly improved the depth that the Royals have at the short stop position.

Arteaga was signed out of Venezuela in August for a bonus of $1.1 million. He is about 6 feet tall weighing 160 pounds. Here is a quote from Rene Francisco Royals assistant to GM of International Operations regarding Arteaga's bat:

“It’s more of a contact, line-drive type bat. It’s a simple, compact stroke. We think he’s going to make a lot of contact.”

The sixteen year old Arteaga was a switch hitter at the time of the signing, however the Royals are planning to move him to just the right side of the plate.

Francisco also said this about Arteaga's defense:

"He's a surehanded shortstop, (His range is) enough to play shortstop and make the play from the hole. His quickness, his anticipation at shortstop, how to position himself—it's really, really good for his age."

The Royals had been following Arteaga since he was just 13 years old. I expect Arteaga to follow the Cheslor Cuthbert path and begin the year in Stateside baseball, most likely in the Arizona League.

36. Orlando Caxito SS

Caxito is the man of many names; however when he played this summer this is the name he went by so I am going to use it here.

RoyalRevival broke the story of a third major international signing by Kansas City after Dayton Moore mentioned it in a 610 sports interview a year ago. After I wrote a blog entry about the intriguing quote, several sources used my article to create some speculation of their own (Keith Law and MLBTradeRumors). I thought that the signing could be outfield prospect Wagner Mateo, however a couple of weeks later we found out that it was a short stop by the name of Paul Carlixte.

Nearly a year after the signing Caxito still remains a prospect mystery to the Royals fanbase. All we really know is that he has a propensity to aliases and that he is a rangy shortstop with smooth hands, a quick bat and plays beyond his years. He generated strong reviews in Instructionals last September and even though his numbers in the Dominican League were less than spectacular I am still very interested in the development of this player.

He should hit the states in 2011 and I am going to venture a guess that it will be in the Applachian League.

Billy Butler Extended

When Dayton Moore took over in June of 2006, he promised that the Royals would lock up players long term when they were deserving. Obviously the team would not be able to lock up every young star. But they would be more willing to spend than they had been in the previous regime.

Well since 2006, the Royals have had three players that in my opinion have deserved to be extended: Joakim Soria, Zack Greinke, and Billy Butler. So far Dayton Moore is 3 for 3 on fulfilling his promise.

Joakim Soria is locked up thru 2014 on what could be the most team friendly deal in baseball. How often can you lock up an elite closer and have the final three years on the deal be club options?

Zack Greinke was locked up to a four year deal just before his 2009 Cy Young campaign. Even by extending him thru 2012 it was determined that his controlled years didn't quite matchup with the Process's timetable to success. Match that with the fact that Greinke was threatening a no show for spring training and the Royals were forced to make a move. The trade netted the Royals roughly twenty-three years of major league service time control in Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi. All because Dayton Moore and the front office made a great move and signed Greinke to a team friendly extension at just the right time.

Now two years later the Royals have extended Butler for potentially five more years, by buying out his remaining three years of arbitration, one year of free agency, and a club option for a second.

The terms of the deal are as follows: $2 million signing bonus, $3 million for 2011, $8 million fo 2012, 2013 and 2014, plus a club option for $12.5 million for 2015 with a buyout of just $1 million.

This deal isn't just good for the Kansas City Royals, this deal is an absolute steal for the Kansas City Royals.

I'm sure by now that everyone reading this blog has seen the list that Butler joined after his 2009 season. You know the list that includes just five players besides Butler that had hit 50+ doubles, 20+ homers at 23 years old or younger in a single season. You know the list that now includes only Butler, Hammerin Hank Greenberg, A-Rod, Albert "The Machine" Pujols, Grady Sizemore, and Miguel Cabrera.

One season later Butler finds himself on another exclusive list. Over the past two seasons only five other players under twenty-five have posted an OPS as good as Butler's .855 figure: Evan Longoria, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Troy Tulowitzki.

According to fangraphs.com currently the market value for 1 WAR (win above replacement) is around $4.5-5 million. Basically this means that if Butler was on the open market this season he would have been coming off a season with a 3.4 WAR making him worth about $15 million conservatively. Not to mention that Butler is going to be just twenty-five for the 2011 season.

If Butler continues to be a 3.4 WAR and doesn't improve at all, he would accumulate about 17.5 WAR over the length of the five year deal. Using the current 10% inflation rate in MLB salaries per year these wins would be worth about $93.5 million conservatively. Butler over the course of those same five years would make just $42.5 million.

Keep in mind that is IF Butler shows no improvement on his 2010 campaign. If Butler were to progress to be 4 WAR guy during what would have been his arbitration years, then a 4.5 WAR guy in 2014, and a 5 WAR guy in his 2015 season. His value during the next five years would have been right around $120 million.

Even if Butler regresses and becomes a 2.5 WAR player over the next five seasons, his value still comes in at just below $70 million. So as you can see this deal has relatively low risk, and has a reward that is potentially very, very high.

Entering the 2011 season many speculated that whichever player performed better between Kila Ka'aihue and Butler would be kept while the other would then be shopped in order to create space for Eric Hosmer.

However, entering 2011 Butler's long term appeal may have been too great to pass up the opportunity to lock him up. Butler is now locked up through his age 25-29 seasons, this is to say that according to most aging curves he is locked up right through the prime years of his career. Meanwhile Ka'aihue who should be under team control through 2015, is currently locked up through his age 27-31 year old seasons. These are also prime years, however by the end of his arbitration years Ka'aihue could be regressing a bit as a player. Butler on the other hand will be hitting his peak.

So what's the problem? The Royals possibly have two strong hitters for the middle of their lineup that hit from the opposite sides of the plate through 2015? Well it is a good problem to have, but the Royals also have a player that they believe could be the best of the bunch that could be major league ready by June of this season.

This is not to say that Kila will not be giving an opportunity. On the contrary as far as he is concerned the next one and a half seasons will be the most important of his career. I say one and a half because in about that amount of time Eric Hosmer will not just be knocking at the major league door, instead he will be running right through it.

If Kila and Butler both destroy the ball for the next season and a half the Royals will have a great trade chip at the 2012 deadline in Ka'aihue as the Royals would probably prefer to keep the right handed bat that has the longer track record. However, if by chance Kila dominates and Butler fails to progress the Royals could hang onto Kila given that he will be under team control just as long as Butler (I find the latter of these two scenarios extremely unlikely.)

If Kila is just an average hitter in 2011, then we will see Hosmer in Kansas City even sooner and the Royals should still be able to fetch a solid prospect in return for roughly 5 years of service for Kila.

*There have also been discussions that Hosmer could make a move to the outfield. He is a decent runner and has a very strong arm, but having watched him play for half the summer in Northwest Arkansas I just can't see that happening.

I think that overall this extension means that more than likely Ka'aihue's days in Kansas City are numbered, if they weren't already. I think that unlike the Greinke deal Butler's now coincides with the timetable for contention, meaning that he will not be traded two years into the deal. (Unless it is determined that Mike Moustakas cannot handle third base.)

Butler wants to be in Kansas City, if he loves the city. He has clearly given the Royals a major hometown discount. But if Butler continues to progress as a hitter and continues to establish himself on the premier hitting lists of professional baseball then the value that the Royals will receive in this deal cannot be overstated.

To the Left, To the Left

So finally the Royals have turned their rotation into a mildly respectable unit with the signings of two veteran lefties. By now everyone reading this knows that these two lefties are Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. I am also going to guess that everyone has heard all of the praise about the Francis deal, and that most readers realize that there is a strong possibility that he pitches well in 2011. I would agree with this statement and looking at the numbers closely it seems like this could be a steal of a deal.

On the other side of the coin is Bruce Chen who also represents a good deal for the Royals at just another 2 million gaurunteed. However, unlike Francis his numbers seem to suggest a drop off from his 2010 results. Nonetheless I am a fan of this deal as well.

With the two signings the Royals rotation is upgraded considerably, and with six major league ready starters Sean O'Sullivan should be allowed to begin the year in Omaha. There he can attempt to learn how to strike some hitters out, an aspect of his game that he is going to need to improve on in order to find any success at the Major League level.

Also, with the two signings the 2011 Royals go from having one of the worst rotations in organizational history to having a rotation that should be stronger than the 2010 version.

But wait the 2010 version had Zack Greinke!

Well based on the results Zack Greinke had an era of 4.17. Let's look at last year's starting six compared to what the Royals should have in 2011.

As you can see compared with the team a year ago the 2011 rotation actually comes out in a pretty favorable light. I also expect that we are going to see a much stronger defensive unit this season in Kansas City particularly in the infield. As a result of this I think Luke Hochevar is going to take a huge step forward and become a very stable starter once every five days. I am sure that Hochevar is also aware of the growing army of pitching prospects in the minors behind him meaning. His deadline for proving himself is growing nearer.

There are those, myself included that have at times viewed 2011 as the waiting line to the midnight premier for when the clock strikes 12, or as I should say the calendar flips to 2012. However, in the next couple of months I am going to try and rile up as much enthusiasm as possible, because it is my opinion that sports are much more enjoyable when there is at least the hope of victory. The signings of Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis provide just a little more hope.

Counterprogramming

Once upon a time a man named Ted Turner purchased a small Atlanta television station called UHF. The station at the time was in financial disarray and boasted the lowest ratings of the six primary Atlanta stations. But Turner decided that with a bit of innovation he could salvage the station and turn it into a money maker.

Turner began by renaming the station WTCG, which obviously was an acronym for Watch This Channel Grow. But really, that is what it stood for. But the name wasn't the reason for the station's turnaround. The reason for the station's turnaround was a concept that Turner employed called counterprogramming. Basically what this meant was that WTCG would show the exact opposite of what was being aired on the top Atlanta stations at the same time slot.

If you didn't feel like watching the six o'clock news, don't worry just tune into WTCG and watch reruns of homesteader Lucas McCain and Johnny Crawford defend their ranch in the New Mexico territory. If you are the churchy type don't fret, instead of watching worship services on Sunday mornings you could flip over to channel 17 and watch Academy Award Theatre. But most importantly if you weren't the type that got caught up in the primetime sitcom lineups, WTCG offered a different type of lineup that you could watch, a lineup that included nine major league hitters.

Of course this is where Turner really made headway on the station's turnaround from worst to first. (A trend that his Atlanta Braves would become famous for in the 1991 season.) Turner put the Braves on every night in front of a massive television audience, because of this Turner's television station ascended to SuperStation status.

So what does all of this have to do with the Kansas City Royals or even professional baseball? Well, bare with me here but I would like to suggest a radical idea that if executed properly could add numerous wins to the final total of the 2011 Kansas City Royals. Are you ready for it?

I suggest that the Kansas City Royals counterprogram their 2011 rotation. Meaning that I believe the Royals should take a proactive approach at their rotation by pairing their top starters against their opponents lesser starters. This also would mean sacrificing the games in which they face other team’s top starters by starting their own back end guys.

Now before you press the X in the upper right corner of your browser, bare with me. As of today the Royals rotation is as follows (era projection per Bill James):

Luke Hochevar (4.65)
Vin Mazzaro (4.05)

Jeff Francis (4.45) Sub in your veteran of choice.

Kyle Davies (4.89)

Sean O'Sullivan (4.88)

Basically with this rotation the Royals have five guys who are middle to back end of the rotation starters at best. So if Kansas City goes with the traditional order with the top guys at the front, then in every game the Royals will enter the contest with the lesser of the two starters taking the mound.

If the Royals take a proactive approach they can at least have a favorable matchup occasionally, perhaps even twice every five games if a couple of our starters pitch well this season. Think of it this way if Hochevar is paired up against another team's ace in every start, the Royals are going to lose a vast majority of those games. However, if Hochevar faces another team's number 4 or 5 starter then that is a matchup that could very well favor the Royals the majority of the time.

Let's look at the first four games of the season against the Angels. Traditionally these are the matchups that we could expect:

Game 1: Hochevar (4.65) vs Weaver (3.45)

Game 2: Mazzaro (4.05) vs Haren (3.52)

Game 3: Veteran Free Agent Signing/Francis (4.45) vs Santana (4.14)

Game 4: Davies (4.89) vs Piniero (4.06)

Looking at these matchups every single one favors the Los Angeles Angels. The smallest difference in ERA between the two starters is .31 in Game 3 and then .53 in Game 2. While in Games 1 and 4 it appears that the matchups aren't even close.

However, if the Royals swap Hochevar and Davies in these matchups, they all of the sudden have turned one of these matchups into just a .59 difference in projected era. This makes the match up a more favorable one from a Royals perspective.

If the Royals were to get even more bold they could turn to Mazzaro in Game 3. Move Hochevar to game 2, Francis to game 4, and Davies to game 1.

With this game 1 continues to be extremely favorable to the Angels, but a loss is a loss so why not just let this one be as lopsided as necessary to create better matchups in the future? In Game 2 you continue to have an unfavorable matchup, however it isn't quite as unfavorable as the traditional lineup of Hochevar facing Weaver. In Game 3, the Royals even have the edge in one of the matchups with Davis being .09 better than Santanta. Finally in game 4 you also have a fairly balanced matchup of Francis just being .40 worse than Piniero.

With a rotation as bad as the Royals 2011 projects to be, the matchups aren't all of the sudden going to scream out in the Royals favor even if you employ this tactic that I have deemed as "counterprogramming." However, it seems a bit dumb to lineup and march straight at the British lines. "That Gates is a damned fool." The Patriot reference? Anyone?

Basically what I am saying is the Royals can line up the pitchers in a traditional way and let themselves be put into an unfavorable matchup night in and night out. Or they can manipulate their rotation in a way that hasn't been done before, by sacrificing certain matchups as lost causes and choosing to fight the battles that have the greater opportunity of success.