Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Draft Lottery

With the newest CBA, Major League Baseball will be instituting the first ever draft lottery. According to the terms the bottom ten teams in revenue and in market size will be placed in a lottery with chances that directly correspond with their winning percentage from the previous season. The lottery will then award 6 teams draft picks following the first round and then six teams with picks after the second round.

So here is a look at the bottom ten teams for market size:

30. Milwaukee 1.55 mill
29. Kansas City 2.03 mill
28. Cleveland 2.07 mill
27. Cincinnati 2.13 mill
26. Pittsburgh 2.35 mill
25. Denver 2.54 mill
24. Baltimore 2.71 mill
23. Tampa Bay 2.78 mill
22. St. Louis 2.81 mill
21. San Diego 3.09 mill
Cut Off
20. Minnesota 3.31 mill
19. Seattle 3.43 mill

Figures based on 2010 Census.

Here are the rankings I found for team revenues. These rankings came from Forbes. Estimates are from 2010 season.

30. Florida $143 mill
29. San Diego $159 mill
t27. Pittsburgh $160 mill
t27. Kansas City $160 mill
26. Oakland $161 mill
25. Tampa Bay $166 mill
t23. Toronto $168 mill
t23. Cleveland $168 mill
22. Baltimore $175 mill
t20. Cincinnati $179 mill
t20. Milwaukee $179 mill
Cut Off
19. Arizona $180 mill
18. Colorado $188 mill

I think from the above figures it is safe to say that the Royals will find themselves with at least a shot in the lottery in every season. I am not sure if being on both lists doubles your chances, but odds are that if the Royals start winning they would find themselves near the cut off of the revenue side. If the Royals were to win consistently I think they would totally drop off that list. (I realize this would be a good thing.)

Some people may feel cheap by the free pick based on market size, but I definitely don't. I'm looking forward to the extra opportunity in coming drafts.

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