Half an hour ago mlbtraderumors reported that Heyman has tweeted that the Royals and Pirates have become other options for Pavano. Now we have heard that both the Nationals and Twins have been interested in Pavano so it is a bit of a shock that the Royals have suddenly become a suitor for the righty's services.
Common sense tells me that the Royals would have to offer Pavano an extra year in order to sign him away from either of the aforementioned clubs. This means that the Royals would probably have to invest three years to the thirty-four year old Pavano and his career 4.34 ERA.
Pavano would provide an upgrade to the 2011 rotation. But I can't imagine the upgrade being as much as his 2011 salary would indicate. Also, he is going to require a multiyear commitment which to me is the red flag.
Right now it is an ideal situation that the Royals not only have a colossal wave of prospects about to hit Kansas City, but that they also have no guaranteed contracts for 2012. If the Royals give Pavano three years then there will be an overpaid veteran on staff thru 2013. This would be an extremely unwise move.
Sure Pavano sounds nice when you think about the potential nightmare rotation of 2011. But as soon as 2012 the Royals could be looking at a rotation that includes Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, John Lamb, and Chris Dwyer among others. Do you really want to go ahead a spot in 2012 to a pitcher that is already subpar? Not to mention 2013 when the prospects are even better and Pavano has regressed even more.
Sure in 2010 Pavano had a strong campaign for the division champion Minnesota Twins. He posted a 3.75 era, with an ERA+ of 111. But since his great 2004 season in Florida that was his first season as an above average pitcher. He doesn't seem to be a very wise pitcher to invest millions upon millions of dollars and mutliple years in.
I do believe that the Royals should sign a starter or two on one year deals. I would prefer one to be an innings eater being either Kevin Milwood or Jeff Francis, and the other to be on a reclamation project in the Ben Sheets of Justin Duchscherer mold. What the Royals should not do is invest multiple years in any of the remaining free agent starters. None of them are worth the investment. Not one.
Mark my words if the Royals sign Pavano, they will regret it by the time his contract expires.