Northwest Arkansas Naturals 2014 Preview

Defense

LF - Whit Merrifield

CF - Lane Adams

RF - Jorge Bonifacio

3B - Cheslor Cuthbert

SS - Orlando Calixte

2B - Justin Trapp*

1B - Mark Threlkeld*

C - Juan Graterol

Rotation

Jason Adam

Greg Billo*

Tim Melville

Noel Arguelles

Sugar Ray Marimon

Bench

C - Micah Gibbs*, C - Parker Morin*, IF - Angel Franco, IF - Yowill Espinal, OF - Ethan Chapman*,  OF - Roman Hernandez, OF - Edinson Rincon

Bullpen

Scott Alexander, Angel Baez*, Malcom Culver, Cody Fassold*, Andy Ferguson, Hassan Pena*, J.C. Sulbaran, Andrew Triggs

Notes:

• There are 9 new faces that will put on a Naturals uniform for the 2014 season.  One of the more notable debuts is 23 year old pitcher Greg Billo.
• To begin the year, the roster doesn't look all that great to those who pay attention to prospects and all things Minor Leagues, but with a fully loaded Wilmington Blue Rocks roster, there will be some big name players that could easily arrive in Springdale by mid-season (Dozier, Starling, Mondesi, Almonte, Manaea, etc.)
• Top Prospect Kyle Zimmer, who ended last year's season with the Naturals, will stay in Arizona for extended Spring Training to get some work in while recovering from biceps tendinitis in his shoulder.  He is expected to join the Naturals on May 20th.
• Jason Adam returns to the Naturals after throwing 144 innings in 2013.  Although Jason posted a career high K rate, he's coming off a disappointing year on the bump as he also logged career highs in ERA (5.13) and BB/9 (3.38).  As of now, his ceiling is that of a back-end starter.  His pitches are solid, but lack the flash as they once did back in his Instructional League days.  His fastball velocity has dipped the past couple seasons and if he can somehow work his way back to his rookie year throwing 98 mph, his status has a rotation candidate will rise drastically.
• Adam won't be the only pitcher to watch at Arvest Ballpark.  Newcomer Greg Billo makes his Double-A debut coming off a successful 2013 campaign as he worked his back from Tommy John surgery.  In 40 innings for Lexington, he posted a 1.35 ERA, his best since 2011, 38 K's, 13 BB and 6 ER, along with a FIP of 2.93.  
• Ranked as #4 in the Royals' Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America, RF Jorge Bonifacio will come back to Springdale for a second season only because age is definitely on his side.  The 20 year old has a pure swing with a lot of power potential.  Between Wilmington and a short stint with the Naturals in '13, his slash line was .298/.372/.429 with 4 HR and 55 RBI.  Scouts still say the power is there and will arrive soon.  It will be nice to see Bonifacio display that power in a full season at Arvest Ballpark.

2014 Prospect Countdown: #37 Greg Billo

37. Greg Billo Right Handed Pitcher

Photo by mwltraveler.com

Age: 23
Position: RHP
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 220
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 28th round of the 2008 Amateur Draft
From: Orlando Park, IL

2013 Rank: 38

2012 Rank: 35

2011 Rank: 55

Landon Adams (NR): A regular on the Royal Revival top prospects list, Billo has failed to break his way into serious prospect status. A huge part of my thought process when I consider my personal rankings is the way in which the prospect is evaluated by the team. Obviously, this can sometimes be tricky, but in many cases you can tell how a team feels about a prospect by the way in which they treat him. For me Billo, is a guy that I believe the organization doesn't see anything more in than organizational depth. I think this point was made exceptionally apparent when he was demoted to Low-A in 2013 after mediocre results in High-A in 2012. If the organization was serious about Billo, I suspect he would have at least had the opportunity to return to Wilmington. I know injuries played a factor in this decision, but those injuries also factor in to me not placing Billo in my personal top 30.

Paden Bennett (27): I am the only one who ranked Billo in their top 30 and here is why:  Billo has always showed promise.  In 2011 he led the Midwest League in ERA (1.93) while striking out 119 in 135 innings.  Tommy John surgery put his status in the rear view mirror in 2012 but Billo came back strong in 2013 striking out 38 batters in 40 innings.  I'm not worried about his 13 walks in 40 innings last year because he just came off elbow surgery.  I look for Billo to make big strides this year and possibly reach Northwest Arkansas.

Joe Cox (NR): I did not rank Billo but he is certainly warrants attention as a prospect with potential for the Royals.  Billo required Tommy John surgery during the summer of 2012 but was able to come back in 2013 in time to log 49 innings (40 of them coming in A ball at Lexington).  Billo will be entering his age 23 season in 2014, his seventh season with the organization.  Billo has shown the ability to limit walks and strike batters at a decent rate.  His past two seasons have been a step backwards from his very impressive 2011 season when he led the Midwest League in ERA, but Billo has always had some sleeper appeal as a prospect and a healthy 2014 should help turn his career back in the right direction.  Many think he has back of the rotation upside at the big league level, and Billo could very well make the jump to the upper levels of the minors in 2014.

Dan Ware (NR): Prior to last season, I was hoping to see Greg in Northwest Arkansas' rotation.  Unfortunately, he needed T.J. surgery and came back strong in 2013 with the Royals Rookie League team and Lexington. While logging 9 innings in Arizona to get back into the swing of things, he spent the majority of his season in Kentucky, where in 8 starts, averaging 5 innings a game, recorded the lowest era of his career at 1.35.  After working hard to keeping the ball down in the zone during his 2012 season, his GB% declined and LD% rose drastically, meaning he wasn't keeping the ball down as much he would have liked.  I'll cut him slack because he came off a major operation to his elbow, but this year he'll need to start off on a high note.  If he limit his walks and keeps the ball low, he'll bounce back. Look for Greg to start off in Lexington to get a few starts before making the trip to Wilmington.

Total Points: 4

Prospect Countdown: #38 Greg Billo

38. Greg Billo Starting Pitcher

Paden Bennett (NR): This is a HUGE year for Greg Billo.  At 22 years old he is fairly old for Wilmington. We need to see consistency and fairly big strides made.  Like Dan said, I would love to be able to watch Billo painting the outside corner with fastballs in Northwest Arkansas this season.  Billo has shown flashes of brilliance and could easily move up with a little consistency.

Joe Cox (NR): Billo is a 22 year-old right handed pitcher who has been in the Royals organization since 2008. Billo only appeared in 12 games last year and is clearly on this list because of his impressive 2011 season where he led the Midwest League in ERA. For a team desperate to see consistent improvement from their minor league pitching, Billo still has a chance to regain his form from the not so distant path. It looks like Billo was forced to work without his best pitch, his slider for the time he pitched in 2012 which may account for his struggles. If Billo starts using all of his pitches and stays healthy he could move up this list. However Billo is getting old for his level, and needs to take a big leap in 2013 to become relevant again as any part of the Royals future.   

Damion Mandalas (NR): As Joe said, Billo's current claim to fame is his 2011 Midwest League ERA title. Billo is also a name recognized by prospect hounds, because he was once named as a sleeper prospect by Baseball America. Entering 2013, Billo will likely open the season for the Wilmington Blue Rocks with an opportunity to earn a quick bump to Northwest Arkansas if there is a spot for him. Yes, Billo's ERA was the highest of his career in 2012, but he struck out batters at a higher percentage than the average Carolina League pitcher and he continued to limit home runs. I think Billo has 4/5 starter upside and there is definitely value in that. The Royals clearly need front of the rotation starters, but guys like Billo in that they provide the depth necessary to get through a 162 season. Also, Billo is a type of guy who could be an appealing additional piece in a smaller trade. Think Justin Marks in the David DeJesus trade. 

Dan Ware (29): As far as ERA is concerned, Billo has been up and down the past few seasons.  His 2011 campaign with Kane County was certainly a confidence boost.  I did a little research on Greg to figure out where the success came from.  Alan Barrington of 'Kings of Kauffman' interviewed Greg back in March, asking what contributed to his 9-5 year, "I learned to keep the ball down and that was a big help for me.  Being able to throw my off-speed pitches for strikes made it so much easier to pitch, and a few mechanical changes and little tweaks."  I'm hoping to see Billo in a Naturals uniform this season.  Greg brings a hard work ethic to the table, which can help revamp the rotation in Northwest Arkansas. Yordano Ventura, Justin Marks, and Tim Melville, along with Billo could make for some fun in the sun in 2013.

Total Points: 2

Prospect Countdown: #35 Greg Billo

#35 Greg Billo

Age: 21
Position: RHP
Height: 6-4
Weight: 220
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 28th Round of 2008 Amateur Draft
From: Orland Park, IL



Entering 2011, I ranked Greg Billo as the 55th best prospect in the stacked Royals' farm system. Entering the season, I called for Billo to begin the season in Kane County where I predicted he would see dramatic improvement in several statistical areas, but in specific ERA. I couldn't have been more correct as Billo ranked third in all of Minor League Baseball in ERA at season's end. Billo's 1.93 ERA was behind only Matt Moore's 1.92 and Michael Fiers 1.86.

Billo's strongest asset is his excellent control. For his career he has posted 2.3 BB/9 and in 2011 that number came in at just 1.7. For some perspective the Midwest league average BB/9 was 3.31 in 2011. If Billo can keep his walk rate around 2, and his strikeout rate over 7 he should continue to have no trouble finding success as a starter.

Unfortunately, keeping the strikeout rate over 7 could prove to be difficult for Billo due velocity issues and his lack of a true plus pitch. Reports on Billo's velo varied throughout the season. At one point I remember someone reporting that his velocity was actually up to 91-92 mph. But toward the end of the year the common report was that his velocity was only 83-86, explaining why he wasn't getting the prospect buzz one would normally expect with an ERA so low.

In my mind there are two key factors when it comes to Billo's potential rise in prospect standing. First, Billo has to maintain his premium command. In addition to his fastball Billo throws an average curveball and decent change, with excellent command it could be possible for him to eventually develop into a back end starter as long as he meets the second condition. The final condition of course as that Billo can get his velocity to at least 88-92 mph on a consistent basis.

If Billo can meet these conditions, he'll likely eventually turn into a back end starter. If Billo can somehow turn one of his offerings into a plus offering maybe he can even be a 3 someday (not likely). Billo's an interesting prospect in that Baseball America has picked him as a breakout type player in the past. He has a good frame and it wouldn't be absurd for him to add velocity as he develops. Look for Billo to open 2012 as a Wilmington Blue Rock.

Picture credit: Milb.com