Sunday, October 14, 2012

Self Appointed Best Fans in Baseball


Two weeks ago, Miguel Cabrera stood in front of the Kansas City faithful as they gave him a standing ovation. As we are all aware, Cabrera had just accomplished the incredible feat of baseball’s Triple Crown. Despite doing so in front of an opposing crowd, it was awesome to see the fans at Kauffman Stadium give him his due.

Unfortunately, the national media, instead of patting Kansas City’s fan base on the back, will choose to continue to perpetuate the idea that Royals fans unfairly booed Robinson Cano for not selecting a Royal to take part in the home run derby. The same national media members won’t take the time to understand that Royals fans weren’t booing that evening because Billy Butler had been left out by Cano; Royals fans were booing because Cano outright lied about including Billy Butler in the Derby.  If you believe that isn’t a booable offense that is fine, but at least provide the rest of the country with an accurate depiction. I don’t think that is too much to ask, after all it is your job.

Fast forward to Thursday night in Oakland, when another awesome gesture was put forth by the home crowd.  If you were watching the game, you’ll know what I am talking about. Following the final out of a 6-0 game 5 loss to Detroit, what appeared to be virtually every A’s fan in attendance began chanting ‘Let’s Go A’s!’.  I may be wrong, but while the camera panned across the stadium, there were only a handful of people making their way toward the exits.

It isn’t that uncommon for a team to play its final game of the season and the home crowd to give a courtesy clap as they walk on the field, but what happened on Thursday in Oakland was special. The Oakland crowd clearly knew that they were playing with house money. Did they want to win the World Series? No doubt. But were they able to stand back and truly appreciate what they had just witnessed? Yes, probably better than any fan base I’ve ever seen.  It was an incredibly classy gesture put forth by a fan base that is often spit on by those around baseball including people within the A’s own front office.

Of course, what made the A’s fans’ class even more noticeable was the timing. Just a few hours prior to the A’s defeat, the Cardinals had fallen on a walk off home run by Jayson Werth. Now I may have a poor sample of the Cardinal Nation, but it was amazing how harsh Cardinals’ fans were on Lance Lynn. Let’s just be blunt, without Lance Lynn’s spectacular first half there is the possibility that the Cardinals wouldn’t have reached the postseason, but apparently the self-appointed best fans in baseball have short term memories.

We also shouldn’t forget about the ridiculous manner in which the Cardinals’ fan base attempted to vilify Albert Pujols last offseason. Instead of wishing him well as he took what was clearly a better offer in Los Angeles, they acted as if their wife had just cheated on them. I understand the frustration, but do not act like he was obligated to stay in St. Louis. Baseball was a business, is a business, and will always be a business. Oh, and if you are going to root for him to fail, keep it to yourself. The antagonistic, self-interested vendetta isn’t a good look on anyone, let alone an organization that low balled the best player in baseball and then acted as if he was the party at fault.

There may have been a time when St. Louis Cardinals fans attended games and supported, not just their team, but the game of baseball with the utmost class. There may have been time when their fan base didn’t rub their success in the faces of the rest of the baseball world. There may have even been a time when Cardinals fans were humble and proud of their success but also aware that it wasn’t a given. If these days did exist they have long since passed.

Instead, an entire generation of Cardinals fans have been socialized in a different way than their predecessor. I don’t blame their arrogance on the fans themselves. Baseball has socialized the Cardinals fan base to be who they are. We may have to accept it, but let’s not continue passing along the notion that Cardinals fans are better. We can at least do this for their own good.

Imagine trying to raise a child while the entire world told them that they were not only the best, but that they were more intelligent than anyone else and that they could never be outclassed as well. Of course that child is going to grow up to pretty much be the opposite of all those things. This is the exact socialization process that Cardinals fans have undergone. It should be no shock to anyone that the youngest part of the fan base is arrogant, entitled and looks down on every other fan base in baseball, preaching about the game to others.

Even on top of the socialization aspect, it hasn’t helped that over the last two decades, the Cardinals have lived an incredibly charmed life. It is as if the Baseball Gods determined that after enduring Don Deckinger’s call in 1985, every pivotal moment forward would go the Cardinals way. I think that the last twelve months have been evidence enough, and I can’t help but wonder how long before the pendulum swings the other way.

Don’t get me wrong, I am absolutely jealous of the Cardinals success. Every time they reach the postseason, I can’t help but envy the feeling of getting to root for my team in October. Do I root against the Cardinals in most situations? I will admit that I do, but I will also applaud them when Jon Jay makes a spectacular catch or David Freese does his thing in crucial situations. But let me be perfectly clear, I love Kansas City, I love the Royals, and I love our fan base. We don’t need a self appointed title to love our team and to love the game of baseball with class.  

Thursday, October 11, 2012

What to do with Joakim

"I just have to wait and see what they do," Joakim Soria said. "It's better for me and my family (to stay with the Royals). My wife is pregnant. I'm just focusing on my rehab." 
To me that sounds like a guy that really wants to stay in Kansas City. The Royals of course would have to want him back and then both sides would have to reach some sort of agreement to make Soria's return a reality.

As I'm sure you are aware Soria has an $8 million option for 2013 with a $750K buyout clause that would need to be enacted within three days of the World Series in order for the Royals to decline it. This of course is a given and no big secret that the Royals will act on the buyout clause. My hope is that before allowing Soria to reach the open market, the two sides can work out a way to get him back to Kansas City for 2013.

One would normally expect a pending free agent to not act early on a one year incentive laden deal without first testing the open market. However, Soria could just be that rare case that goes against the grain. The dude has obviously enjoyed his time in Kansas City and I do believe that he genuinely wants to be there. Also, based on the comment above, it sounds as though he doesn't want to have to move his family in the middle of a pregnancy.

The Royals clearly are going to be focused in on acquiring starting pitching this offseason. However, if the Royals can nab Soria on a team friendly enough deal, I don't think they should hesitate to pull the trigger. The bullpen was brilliant in 2012, but every team could always use another reliever.

Another thing to consider, is that just a couple of months ago the Royals did mention the possibility that Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, or Tim Collins could transition to the rotation in 2013. This could be a similar situation to the Jonathan Broxton signing, where the Royals strengthened their bullpen in anticipation of one of the backend relievers transitioning to the rotation.

Last season, the Royals signed Broxton to a one year deal worth $4 million and an additional $1 million in incentives. If the Royals can get Soria back on a similar deal, I am all for it. Yes, money needs to be devoted to the rotation, but like I said this is a move that makes sense for both parties.

I was at the game in last Spring when Joakim Soria grabbed his arm and saw his season come to an end. As a Royals fan, Joakim Soria has provided me so many fond memories. I'm obviously a little biased, but I  would prefer my last memory of Joakim Soria, to be something a little more exciting than the final memory I currently have in my mind.

Monday, October 8, 2012

Don't Stop Until You Reach Three

Unfortunately, Rany beat me to a post that I have been daydreaming about in my head for quite some time, but I am going to ahead and write it anyway. If I am merely echoing his sentiments that is fine, but here are my thoughts on how the Royals should approach the rotation moving from 2012 to 2013.

From where it stands right now, I believe that if the Royals are serious about winning in 2013, they need to bring in at the very least two starters better than what they currently have in the organization. If the Royals really want to win, then I think three is the number that they should strive for. If the 2013 season started tomorrow, here is the rotation Kansas City fans would have to look forward to:


  1. Luke Hochevar
  2. Bruce Chen
  3. Luis Mendoza
  4. Jake Odorizzi
  5. Will Smith
  6. Everett Teaford
  7. Nate Adcock
The reason that I am listing seven pitchers, is because for once the Royals need to approach the rotation with depth in mind. Last year, they made it blatantly clear that they didn't want to bring in anymore starters because it would block their own prospects from reaching the Bigs. Here is the deal, these things will work themselves out. So not only should this offseason be about filling out the rotation, but it should also be about creating a situation in which there are other options available should the starters that open in the rotation falter or fall to injury.

The Royals absolutely and unequivocally need to cut ties with Luke Hochevar. Interestingly, by cutting ties with Hochevar, you actually improve the flexibility necessary to build a stronger rotation with more depth. The reason for this, is that if Hochevar's rotation spot has an opportunity cost, that equates to not only having to deal with Luke Hochevar in the rotation, but also it means that you have one less rotation slot available in which to improve. 

I don't think I am breaking any ground by suggesting the Royals cut ties with Hochevar. Based on my payroll charts, if the Royals cut tie with Hochevar they will be sitting in the low $50 million range for financial commitments in 2013. Now Bob Dutton speculates that the Royals have between $20-23 million in payroll space for 2013. However, in 2009 the Royals payroll reached nearly $80 million, so depending on estimates it isn't beyond reason to believe that the Royals could have up to $30 million to play with this offseason.

Should he Royals spend that much in one offseason? That debate is for another post. Do the Royals have that much space long term? Probably not. However, it is pretty clear that for the first time in my memory the Kansas City Royals and their ownership have made it clear that money will be spent in the offseason. If not for any other reason, that makes me extremely excited for the hot stove to heat up.

So back to pitching. Obviously, I would love to see the Royals bring back Jeremy Guthrie, but only at the right price. I know he was fantastic in his time in Royals blue, but we can't forget that he was dreadful in Colorado and we need to remember that the market probably won't forget either. However, based off some of the comments we have seen recently it appears that Jeremy Guthrie has become a pivotal part of the Royals offseason.

Secondly, the Royals need to go out and bring in a starter that is just as good or better than Guthrie. This is the guy that is likely to really force the Royals to really break the bank. Will they be willing to go all in for the Zack "the Prodigal Son" Greinke? I seriously doubt it. However, guys like Shaun Marcum, Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse, and Anibal Sanchez would also strengthen the Royals current rotation.

Finally, and here is where we get to the depth part of the discussion, I want to see the Royals take a flyer on a buy low guy. A guy like Ervin Santana would be the kind of high upside that would be great in this role. Another guy that would interest me would be the Twins' Scott Baker should they decline his $9.25 million club option. 

So here's what our rotation would look like moving into 2013. I'm going to go with the guys my gut tells me are the most likely fits.

  1. Shaun Marcum
  2. Jeremy Guthrie
  3. Ervin Santana
  4. Luis Mendoza
  5. Bruce Chen
  6. Jake Odorizzi
  7. Will Smith
  8. Everett Teaford
  9. Nate Adcock
But there is one more thing I think the Royals need to absolutely do in an attempt to turn around their rotation and that is to truly attempt a conversion of Aaron Crow from the bullpen to the rotation. I agree with most everyone in that he profiles better as a reliever than a starter. However, there is a part of me that strongly believes that if the Royals are looking for cheap high upside options in the rotation, they should look no farther than the former Missouri Tiger.

The Royals should commit to Crow's conversion to the rotation for at least the first half of 2013. If Crow isn't cutting it, you have Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy ready to break into the rotation.

If things were to shake out as planned in Spring Training you would have a rotation of:

  1. Shaun Marcum
  2. Jeremy Guthrie
  3. Ervin Santana
  4. Aaron Crow
  5. Bruce Chen
As far as the depth goes, you would have quite a bit of it. Luis Mendoza, arguably the best starter on the team in 2012 would be the swing man in the pen.Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith, two near Major League ready starters, would go to Omaha to receive more development knowing that to earn spots they have to force the organization's hand. Finally, there is Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy, possibly the best two starters in the organization at the moment, returning sometime in July. Providing the Royals rotation with two very strong alternatives to any injuries or poor performance. 

No the rotation doesn't have an ace. However, this is a rotation that absolutely could give Royals fans a summer to remember. The upside is absolutely there. Even if Aaron Crow doesn't handle the transition,  Ervin Santana continues his tailspin into awfulness, or Bruce Chen continues to give up the gopher ball, there is depth available to improve.

It is probably asking for a lot to state that the Royals need to acquire three starters. I will also readily admit that I am no expert when it comes to predicting player's value on the open market, but hey neither is Dayton Moore. For example, in order to acquire the aforementioned starters, the Royals would likely need at least $20-25 million to play with. One would have to hope the Royals could nab Guthrie for around $7.5 million, Marcum for a nice hometown discount at around $8 million, and Santana for an incentive laden deal with a base around $6 million. (We will try to look at many of these targets much more in depth over the coming weeks.)

Whoever the targets are, let's just hope Dayton Moore can grab them at the best cost possible and the Royals don't just stop at one addition. I truly believe this team is close. I have an anxious feeling regarding the 2012-13 offseason and I can't help but think that it will be the defining moment of the Dayton Moore era. One way or another the next few months should be exciting.

In the Cross Hairs: Kyle Lohse

Pitching.  It's what most of the organizations in baseball has in their arsenal and it's the one key area Kansas City desperately need.  It's going to take some dedication and time for GMDM and his staff to come up with the plan to acquire the personnel we need for the rotation when February rolls around.  Oh, and the fact that David Glass said he would be willing to spend some bucks.  Saying we certainly need our front office to come through this winter is an understatement.

Anyway, a few days ago, Bob Dutton posted a very good article on a few specific guys the Royals have their eyes on, a list of other possibilites, etc.  I looked over it and saw a couple names I liked, a few I didn't.  One of the names I looked into a little longer was (hopefully some of you will agree with me) Kyle Lohse.

Lohse is climbing in age, but has been fairly solid for the Cardinals the past 2 years. Courtesy of FanGraphs, 16-3, 2.86 era with opponents hitting .234 this season, respectively. Along with his lowest BB/9 season of his career with 1.6, he also piled up a groundball rate of 40.5% and a flyball rate of 35.6%.  I think Lohse would be a good fit playing at The K. While throwing strikes and putting balls into play, the Royals much improved defense can definitely play a beneficial role for Kyle.

Here's the kicker: he threw 211 innings this season, the most since 2008.  So far, he has thrown in the very "Wild" wild card game against the Braves last Friday, going 5.2 innings and giving up just 2 ER.  Depending on how Game 2 goes against the Nationals, Lohse will most likely get the nod for game 3 if the Cards' lose, even though Chris Carpenter is scheduled to start.

One more point of interest.  After the season concludes, Lohse will have made just under $12 million this season ($11,875,000 to be exact).  Signing him to a 1-2 year deal, I'd be willing to give him around that ballpark, considering Jeremy Guthrie made $8.2 million this year.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

David Glass Interview

From the bottom of the 2nd to the end of the 3rd inning in tonight's season finale, Ryan and the Wonder Dog caught up with Owner David Glass, discussing how the team has played this season, scenarios for the off-season, this year's MVP, and other hot topics.  Here are some of the notes I took from Glass:

- State of the Royals: "Dayton and his people have done a fantastic job.  Our major goal coming in was to build up our Minor League systems and I feel very good where we are right now."

- "Watching during Spring Training, I thought we would play .500 baseball this year."

- Glass is going to allow whatever it takes to get pitching this off-season.

- Wasn't too confident about trading.

- 1st time in a very long time that we have enough prospects to trade for good starting pitching.

- "You're a baseball fan aren't ya Mr. Glass?!" - Rex.  (Thanks for chiming in there Wonder Dog.)

- "We're committed to win here in Kansas City.  This town will have the Royals for a very long time.  I think we would be in the playoff hunt right now if it weren't for Paulino and Duffy going down."

- "As for Dayton, he makes the call on whether we have to fill the holes internally or to go out and sign somebody.  I trust Dayton and his people's judgement."

- "Our pitching is developing very well throughout the organization.  Not only pitching, but some of our newly drafted kids.  Bubba Starling will do great things, so will that Mondesi kid we've got."

- "Guthrie and Sanchez were essentially the same player, but once we brought Jeremy here to KC, he was a totally different player."

- Glass on the A's, "I didn't think they would be good, watching them in Spring Training early this year."

I was glad to hear that David would 'do whatever it takes to get pitching.'  Now I was concerned about how he wasn't sure about trading.  To me, he probably meant he wasn't sure if trading prospects is the best way to go.  I'm very curious as to how Dayton and his team will go about getting pitching during the winter. One thing we can all agree on: pitching is in dire need for our rotation.  Whether we look into young arms to fill the void, or go after say Shawn Marcum, Edwin Jackson or even Zack Greinke, it's all in GMDM's hands. Remember Dayton: Mr. Glass has your back and will help! (So he says tonight...).