Prepping for the Draft: Braden Shipley & the Clear top 8

On Thursday the Royals will make the third selection of the 2013 First Year Player draft. It just so happens that the #8 prospect in Baseball America's top 500 draft prospects for this year, is a pitcher who bares a striking resemblance to the Kansas City's first round pick from a season ago.

After Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, the top college arm available in the draft is Nevada's Braden Shipley. Like Kyle Zimmer from a year ago, Shipley offers the benefit of being tested against college competition, but also has the limited wear on his arm thanks to the fact that he too is converted infielder. For better or for worse, the Royals organization prefers to develop arms themselves and as a converted infielder, they would have the opportunity to do so.

Shipley also offers the type of three pitch mix that the Royals organization prefers. He boasts a fastball  that sits 93-96 sometimes touching 98, one of the draft's best change ups, and a work in progress curveball that should one day be an average offering. This is the mix that the Royals hammer into their young prospects and the same three pitch mix that excited the Royals enough to select Kyle Zimmer last June.

I am pretty confident that if Shipley is available to the Royals at eight they will select him. However, there are also rumors that both the Cleveland Indians and Miami Marlins are hot on the scent of the member of the non-Hangover Wolfpack. Many suspect Cleveland to go the route of Colin Moran, but Miami could be the snag. They are also said to be considered high school catcher Reese McGuire as well as Mississippi outfielder Hunter Renfroe.

Shipley isn't necessarily my top choice, but I do find him to be an attractive option. My fear is that if Shipley doesn't last until the Royals selection, they will be so locked in on pitching that they will reach deeper into their draft board and pass up on superior prospects. Outside of Gray and Appel, I see no other college pitching prospect worthy of a top 10 selection. In order to protect the Royals from themselves, it might be the safest bet to root for Shipley to slide.

Additional Note: In Bob Dutton's article regarding the draft in today's KC Star, he throws in this little nuggest...

"All signs, however, point to a preference for a pitcher unless one of two highly regarded prep outfielders from Georgia - Clint Frazier or Austin Meadows - unexpectedly remain on the board."

This is the first connection between the Royals and those two players. I find it especially interesting, because based on my readings there is a strong chance that at least one of the two remains when the Royals are on the clock. It would be very surprising if Grey, Appel, Kris Bryant, or Kohl Stewart last past the top 5.Given that pretty consistently Shipley, Frazier, Meadows, and Moran have ranked as the next four prospects to go it seems likely that the Royals will have the opportunity to pick one of the four.

Based on the mock drafts that I have looked over, the next grouping of prospects are up in the air. So based off of industry consensus, the Royals find themselves in a decent spot of having the guaranteed opportunity to select one of the top 8 players in the draft. This brings me back to my initial fear; that Shipley will go in the top 7 and the Royals will reach for a pitcher in order to fit their pre-draft plan.

Prepping for the Draft: Thoughts on Sean Manaea

When it comes to the 2013 Amateur Draft the most intriguing prospect could be Indiana State left hander Sean Manaea. This is not to say that the Sycamore is the most highly regarded prospect on the board as that honor clearly belongs to either Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray or Stanford's Mark Appel. However, eight months ago, this wasn't so obvious and many considered Manaea a candidate to be selected in the top spot of the draft.

According to Baseball America, during the Cape Cod League last summer Manaea featured a mid-90s fastball that dominated hitters, allowing them to hit just .119 against him in 52 innings of work. Unfortunately for the lefty his velocity has been down to 88-93 all Spring and he hasn't even maintained that throughout many of his starts.The combination of that and injuries haveresulted in many to predict that Manaea could slide on draft day, with some even speculating that as a Boras client he could steal a page from the Mark Appel playbook and return to school for another year.

Now, there is no way that I think the Royals should take a chance on him with the #8 overall pick in the draft. No, there are several other options that I would be much more comfortable with/excited for in the slot. However, thanks to the powers at be, the Royals have been awarded with an asset that no team has ever had before. On July 18, 2012, the Royals were crowned champions of the first ever Competitive Balance Lottery.*

*First we are the champions of the competitive balance lottery then we lead the league in fewest home runs. Can life get better?

Thanks to the Royals good fortune and small market, this weekend the Royals will get to make selections at 8, 34, and 46. Perhaps even more importantly given the new collective bargaining agreement, the Royals will also receive the additional bonus pool allotment that is assigned to each of those draft slots. As a result, the Royals have the 6th largest bonus for this year's draft.

Now back to Manaea. Here's what Jim Callis had to say about the 6-5, 215 pounder in his latest mock draft:

"Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea remains the draft's biggest wild card. He was a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick before his stuff dipped and he endured ankle, hip and shoulder issues this spring. Teams don't have a good feel for his health or his signability, and I believe the most likely scenario is one of the clubs at the top of the draft with a large bonus pool will gamble on him after the first round."

There are only four teams that have larger bonus pools than Kansas City that also pick higher in the first round. Those teams are the Houston Astros, the Chicago Cubs, the Colorado Rockies, and the Florida Marlins. The Astros have already proven to have the strategy of spreading bonus money around to players with signability concerns, but last year they featured a strong high school focus. Theo Epstein of the Cubs drafted a similar player to Manaea in his time in Boston when he selected Anthony Ranaudo with the 39th pick of the 2010 draft.

What is important to note, is that while these teams select ahead of the Royals in the first round, the Royals will have the first shot at Manaea following the first round. The only teams with a second pick before Kansas City and a bonus pool larger than $7 million are the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees.

The Pittsburgh Pirates select 9th and 14th, but would they be willing to gamble a selection that high on Manaea, especially after they were burnt a year ago with Appel? I find this doubtful. The Yankees, however, select 32 and 33 and could be a real threat. Ultimately, only time will tell if they roll the dice.

Thanks to the Competitive Draft Lottery, the Royals are in a very good position come draft day. Should they take a chance on the Missouri Valley Southpaw? I can't say, but it is definitely an intriguing proposition and they clearly fit the profile for the type of team that will eventually select him.

Royals 2013 Draft Bonus Pool

Thanks to Jim Callis's hard work at Baseball America, we learned today that the Royals bonus pool for the 2013 first year player draft will be $8,290,700. They will have to spread this money across their first 11 selections in the draft. The Royals will also be deducted for any money they spend over $100,000 on picks from round 11 on and will lose all of the allotted money assigned to picks that they fail to sign.

The Royals sixth in terms of budget pool and have 11 selections in the first round thanks to the addition of their competitive balance lottery pick. Three of those selections will come within the first 46 picks of the entire draft (8, 34, and 46). Only three teams will have more draft picks than the Kansas City Royals: the Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, and the Oakland Athletics.

Here is a quick breakdown of the American League Central's draft budget pools:

• 6) Kansas City - $8,290,700
• 7) Minnesota - $8,264,400
• 16) Detroit - $6,467,400
• 19) Cleveland - $6,188,800
• 24) Chicago - $5,301,600

I wasn't a huge fan of the Collective Bargaining Agreement thanks in large part to the limits on amateur spending. I will agree though that long term something needed to be done, before large market teams realized how easily it could be for them to dominate the amateur market in the same ways they do the free agent market.

It is great that the Royals will still have one of the largest budget pools, but I would prefer the pools to be decided based on market size or payroll rather than the team's finish from the year before. The simple fact is that smaller market teams have to rely more on the draft and player development. In my mind, if the draft is about parity, these teams should be dealt a favorable hand.

A team like the Athletics or Rays shouldn't be penalized for their own success, when the draft will be their lifeline at future success. There are many counter arguments to these points, but don't forget that I'm a Royals fan. Of course I would prefer to see a realm when small market teams are at an advantage.

I do realize that in a sense small market teams are being given extra budget dollars thanks to the new competitive balance lottery. I definitely won't complain about these picks. Sure it feels dirty that the Royals get an extra pick simply for playing in Kansas City, but once again it is nice to have an advantage in at least one area. Let's hope the Royals can make the most of this year's opportunity.

For a look at the entire list of draft budgets, you can find it here.